Bruce Blakeman's bid for governor is 'a statewide game,' analysts say

ALBANY — Bruce Blakeman’s challenges for winning the Republican nomination to run for governor are pretty clear. So are his advantages.

In a race that will garner national attention, Blakeman starts off with less name recognition and fewer campaign funds than northern New York Rep. Elise Stefanik. But Washington-based headlines and appearances won’t determine the race, experts said.

“This is not a national game. This is a statewide game,” Republican strategist Susan Del Percio said. “And Bruce has been involved a long time and has built up a lot of goodwill over the years.”

“Absolutely, this is a statewide game,” said Michael Dawidziak, a Long Island-based Republican strategist who is not involved in the race. “A lot of those national players can’t play until there is a bona fide candidate.”

Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, officially declared his candidacy Tuesday in a campaign launch video and series of cable television appearances.

His challenges to winning the nomination include boosting his name recognition, ramping up fundraising and neutralizing some of the early, structural party support for Stefanik.

Early polling should put Stefanik well ahead of Blakeman because of the name recognition factor, analysts said. But it’s not a determining factor — just look at the recent New York City mayoral contest.

“As a consultant, I never worry about name recognition. When it comes time to vote, people will know,” Dawidziak said.

Stefanik has been an ally of President Donald Trump in Congress, moving much farther to the political right since she first ran for her district, which runs from Saratoga County to the Canadian border. She’s built up her national name recognition and a robust fundraising apparatus.

Stefanik has nearly $11 million in her congressional campaign committee as of Sept. 30. Blakeman finished the county executive race with about $800,000 in the bank. There are restrictions on transferring funds, but good-government watchdogs say there are plenty of ways to sidestep the rules.

“He’s got some catching up to do, but I think he could close the gap pretty quickly,” Dawidziak said. “A lot of Republican donors live in Nassau and Suffolk counties, a lot of high-dollar donors.”

Stefanik has the support of state Republican Chairman Ed Cox and a number of county-level GOP leaders; Cox called her the party’s “best chance” to unseat Gov. Kathy Hochul.

But party apparatus support wasn’t enough to prevent a four-man GOP primary for governor in 2022 or to block Carl Paladino from winning the party’s primary in 2010 as two of Cox’s choices fell short.

Also, the backing of Long Island Republican leaders can offset somewhat the upstate support for Stefanik because Republicans used a “weighted voting” system at their convention roughly based on raw-number election turnouts, which helps high-population counties.

“Bruce is the best candidate for the job and the only Republican with the executive experience and proven record to stop” Hochul, Nassau County Republican Chairman Joe Cairo said in a statement.

Endorsements of county chairs can swiftly change with the momentum of the race — as the 2018 and 2006 campaigns for the Republican nomination has shown, when would-be candidates such as Brian Kolb and William Weld racked up the lion’s share of early endorsements but faded.

Blakeman also has some advantages over Stefanik, said Lisa Parshall, a political scientist at Daemen University near Buffalo.

With Long Island, Blakeman has a bigger “voter rich” base of support than an upstate congressional district. He won in a “purple” county where Democrats outnumber Republicans whereas Stefanik has campaigned only in a safe Republican territory. And he’s pro-abortion rights, which might make him more attractive in a general election versus Hochul.

At the same time, he’s pushed policies — a ban on masks in public, a ban on transgender athletes from participating in girls’ sports on county properties — that will feed the Trump base, Parshall said.

Not be overlooked: Trump, given a chance to make an endorsement in New York, didn’t — which has been seen widely as a blow to Stefanik.

“Trump not discouraging Blakeman to run is, in my mind, the same as encouraging Blakeman to run,” Parshall said. “Clearly, [Stefanik] should be leading in the polls early. She could have more generational appeal.

“But a challenge for her will be making sure she, well, sidelined is too strong a word, but that her support from Trump isn’t as strong as it could be,” she said.

On Monday, when Newsday asked Trump about making an endorsement, he limited his remarks to: “Well, I’ll have to see. … They’re both great people.”

Newsday's Billy House and Laura Figueroa Hernandez contributed to this report.

By Yancey Roy

yancey.roy@newsday.com@yanceyroy