Blakeman must navigate shifting ground on immigration

ALBANY — In one of Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman’s first media appearances after announcing his run for governor, he emphasized his plan to replicate his actions during his first four years in office.

Among those is a hard-line stance against the use of public funds to assist new immigrants in New York who are living in the country without legal permission and support of President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown.

When asked what he would do differently than Gov. Kathy Hochul, whose job he is seeking, Blakeman said the first thing he would do is get rid of cashless bail. Then he moved to immigration. "Second of all," he said, "I wouldn't be spending billions of dollars on illegal migrants who've been here for 15 minutes." 

Blakeman's approach to immigration has served him well, most recently helping him win a second term with more than 55% of the November vote in a county where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans. 

The question is whether it will work as well this time.

Support for aggressive deportation efforts is slipping after federal immigration officers fatally shot Renee Good and Alex Pretti in Minneapolis last month. Only 33% of suburban New York voters held a favorable view of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement in the most recent Siena Research Institute poll.

Blakeman has said recently he is pro-immigration and wants to see a "guest worker" program in which immigrants living here without legal permission who have been in the country for a lengthy period of time can attain some type of permanent resident status.

And while Nassau County is one of only a handful of local governments to sign cooperation agreements with ICE, Blakeman has said he does not support agents entering sensitive locations such as schools, day cares and houses of worship on civil immigration matters.

But Blakeman and other Long Island Republicans had several successful election cycles in direct response to former President Joe Biden’s policies, including immigration, said Christopher Malone, an associate provost at Farmingdale State College and a professor of political science.

"He’s been pretty consistent, he’s been pretty hard line," Malone said. "Blakeman was not only a product of that, but he led the charge."

'Foreign invasion'

Blakeman’s position on immigration matters is not new.

In 2022, when hundreds of thousands of migrants began arriving in New York City, Blakeman was among the loudest opponents of allowing the city to house migrants in other counties to provide relief for the city’s overburdened shelter system.

In his 2024 State of the County address, Blakeman called for the county to "fight back against this foreign invasion" pouring through the nation’s "porous borders." He described "unvetted migrants" who commit crimes as "depleting our local resources."

And earlier this year, when Nassau County police arrested Long Islanders living here illegally with low-level criminal convictions or no criminal record at all and transferred them to ICE custody, Blakeman remained supportive.

"I don’t want to distinguish between violent and nonviolent crimes. ... If you’re a criminal, and you’re here illegally, we will take action," he said at the time.

A year ago, the politics around immigration in New York State were much different.

A January 2025 Siena poll found 48% of New Yorkers supported the federal government’s efforts to deport migrants, including nearly 60% of independents. By July, the poll found 41% supported federal deportation efforts. But around 1 in 7 of those voters Siena polled were in the middle or unsure.

That middle ground disappeared in the months leading up to Blakeman’s December announcement that he would challenge Hochul.

The first Siena poll released immediately after Blakeman declared his candidacy found 65% of respondents disapproved of Trump’s large-scale immigration crackdowns, including 67% of independent voters, a key bloc that Blakeman would need to win over to beat Hochul.

Other politicians in the New York City suburbs, areas Blakeman will need if he is to become the first Republican governor of New York since George Pataki, are visibly shifting away from supporting ICE and the federal immigration crackdown.

On Long Island, Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) apologized for his vote to fund the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Rep. Laura Gillen (D-Rockville Centre), who sits in a swing district, called for Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem’s impeachment. And in the Hudson Valley, Republican Rep. Mike Lawler wrote a New York Times op-ed calling for a bipartisan overhaul of the nation’s immigration system.

Meanwhile, Hochul called recently for a ban on local government cooperation agreements with ICE, like the one Blakeman has in Nassau County.

"He continues to lean into ICE doing a good job. I don't know what planet he's on," Hochul said of Blakeman at the time. "Is he not paying attention to the fact that the world has shifted rapidly?"

No public benefits

Blakeman has stuck to his stances.

In an interview with Newsweek posted to YouTube on Feb. 1, Blakeman again laid out his case, arguing the state is wasting billions of dollars to provide benefits for immigrants living here illegally.  

"We don’t know where they came from," he said. "A lot of them are involved in criminal activity. That’s taxpayer dollars that are being spent by people who haven’t earned it."

Blakeman still has options as public opinion shifts away from support of large-scale immigration crackdowns, according to analysts.

Those include hammering Hochul on her record, avoiding talking about immigration and ICE, and emphasizing his plans to make the state more affordable.

That was the tack Blakeman took during a recent news conference at the state Conservative Party’s annual conference, criticizing Hochul over her emphasis on affordability in her recent State of the State address.

"Gov. Hochul, you have been in charge for the last four years," Blakeman said. "You have made us the most unaffordable state in America. Our energy costs are the highest in America."

But most of the media questions afterward dealt with Hochul’s announcement that she would seek to ban local law enforcement from signing cooperation agreements with ICE.

Malone said one risk Blakeman runs if he moderates his position is potentially losing support from the Republican base without making significant gains among moderates.

"My sense is Blakeman isn’t going to run away from that part of his record," he said.

Joe Borelli, a former Republican New York City Council member, said another tactic for Blakeman would be to reframe the issue in a way that emphasizes his stances during the migrant crisis.

"If he’s able to tie the issue of immigration back to fraud, crime, the impact on the budget," Borelli said, "he’ll be able to at least win back some of the people who are neutral on the issue."