Politics newsletter: Looking beyond Hochul, Blakeman numbers in Marist poll

The Marist University poll on the race for New York governor contains some intriguing undercurrents beyond the headline.

Marist’s survey says Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul leads Republican Bruce Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, 52-41. That’s in the ballpark of other independent public opinion polls.

But here’s some other things I think jump out — about enthusiasm, the lack of undecideds and the national factor.

Within the world of Blakeman supporters, 80% are very enthusiastic about their candidate. Among Hochul supporters, 52% are very enthusiastic.

Lower down, when Marist asked about President Donald Trump’s impact on congressional races, the overwhelming majority said they will be voting either for or against him when voting for their local representative. Further, Trump’s job approval rating is a minus-22 points in New York.

Hochul’s own rating is a minus-4. We asked longtime Marist pollster Lee Miringoff, who said it caught his notice, too.

"Sometimes when you trail, your support is more intense as opposed to when you’re the frontrunner, but I think it’s more than that," he said. "It’s not that Hochul is so popular. It’s that Blakeman isn’t established enough beyond the Republican Party. It’s also that Donald Trump casts a long shadow over the race."

The share of voters who still say they don’t know Blakeman or are unsure still hovers between 27% and 31% in various polls — with less than 4 weeks before Election Day.

The Democrats’ 2-1 statewide enrollment advantage and Trump’s ratings benefit Hochul, he said.

"Hers is a somewhat supportive group," as opposed to very enthusiastic, Miringoff said. "But there’s not a lot of undecideds (5%) and not a lot of people thinking about switching (2%). So, it becomes a race about turnout."

By Yancey Roy

yancey.roy@newsday.com@yanceyroy