Democrats, Republicans fight to control NY Senate in eight races

ALBANY -- Control of the State Senate -- and the fate of many key issues -- rides on up to eight contests across New York this week, Democrats, Republicans and analysts agree.

It's not just about a matchup of candidates in a particular district, they said. Tax cuts, immigration, abortion and aid to individual school districts all hang in the balance. Both sides are confident heading into the final weekend -- and are promising different agendas if given the chance to run things.

"Hundreds of issues are at stake," said Steve Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena College poll. "Clearly, the Democrats and Republicans have some mutually shared priorities, but the vast majority of their priorities are not the same."

All 63 Senate seats are up for grabs on Election Day. Currently, 29 Republicans and six breakaway Democrats control the chamber at the expense of 26 mainline Democrats; there are two vacancies. Five of the renegade Democrats have promised to return to the party fold after the election, further complicating the Senate math.

As many as six upstate races are considered determinative. Two races on Long Island initially were seen in the mix as well, though Republicans have opened up big poll leads in those contests: Sen. Jack Martins (R-Mineola) vs. Democrat Adam Haber in Nassau County; and Republican Tom Croci vs. Democrat Adrienne Esposito in Suffolk County.

Two races in the Hudson Valley are key: Sen. Terry Gipson (D-Poughkeepsie) vs. Republican Sue Serino; and the battle for an open seat in Westchester and Putnam counties between Republican Terrence Murphy and Democrat Justin Wagner.

In the Catskills/Capital Region, it's a rematch between Sen. Cecilia Tkaczyk (D-Duanesburg) and Republican George Amedore, a former Schenectady assemblyman, in a race that in 2012 went down to a disputed recount.

In Western New York, Sen. Ted O'Brien (D-Rochester) has been trailing in polls behind former local TV news anchor Rich Funke, running on the Republican line. The battle for an open Niagara County seat could be a sleeper, Greenberg said, though Republican Robert Ortt has been considered the favorite against Democrat John Destino.

And the most intriguing race of all is in Buffalo, where Sen. Mark Grisanti is trying to win a four-way race. Grisanti is running as the Independence Party candidate after losing a GOP primary to Kevin Stocker in September. Timothy Gallagher is running on the Conservative Party line and Democrat Mark Panepinto is hoping to capitalize on a split vote. Democrats and Republicans say someone could win this race with as little as 34 percent of the vote.

Further muddying the waters, if Grisanti wins, it isn't clear which conference he'll join. He has backing from key Republicans -- most prominently Senate co-leader Dean Skelos (R-Rockville Centre) -- but he reportedly recently met with the breakaway Senate Democrats as well. Grisanti has said he'll join whichever group makes the most sense for his Western New York agenda.

Top Democrats and Republicans share one thing: confidence. Each party is predicting its side will win around 34 seats.

"Our feeling is great," Skelos said during the final campaign weekend. "Long Island is in good shape" for Republicans.

Skelos is promising tax cuts to help households and businesses and to restore school aid that was cut after the 2008 stock market meltdown. Mostly, he is trying to remind voters that in 2009-10, when Democrats controlled both houses of the legislature, the state enacted an unpopular payroll tax to fund the MTA and reduced help for schools.

"When the whole government was controlled by New York City Democrats, Long Island got slaughtered," he said. "I think that message is resonating."

Skelos said a Republican-led Senate balances an overwhelmingly Democratic-dominated state Assembly, both regionally and politically.

Democrats counter that the GOP has held the Senate for all but two of the last 40-plus years, while property taxes continue to rise and upstate still struggles.

"If this is their idea of doing a good job for Long Island and upstate, I'd hate to see a bad job," said Sen. Michael Gianaris (D-Queens), head of the Democrats' campaign committee.

Gianaris said that Senate Democrats now are led by a suburbanite, Sen. Andrea Stewart-Cousins (D-Yonkers).

Democrats said, if elected, they will pass a host of "progressive" proposals they think most New Yorkers back, but which Senate Republicans have blocked: to strengthen abortion rights, allow children of immigrants without legal status access to the state's higher-education grants, a minimum-wage hike and tougher campaign-finance laws. Some also want to ban hydraulic fracturing for natural gas, a technique referred to as "fracking."

Traditionally, this election year should favor Republicans in New York, who fare better during nonpresidential years. That trend is supported by current polls, but last-minute cash and advertising blitzes make the Senate outcome unpredictable, Greenberg said.

"It comes down to district-by-district, candidate-by-candidate races to see who" has a majority on Nov. 5, Greenberg said. "I don't think anybody knows enough yet to know what the count will be."