What to watch for in the only debate between Gov. Kathy Hochul and Bruce Blakeman

The only New York gubernatorial debate is set for Tuesday with Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman needing to make a bigger impact than Democrat Gov. Kathy Hochul because time and money are running short, strategists said Monday.

Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, trails the Democrat by 9 to 12 points in the latest independent public opinion polls.  He reported having $178,000 in his campaign account — the lowest amount for a GOP gubernatorial candidate this close to Election Day in a generation.

Hochul has $18.5 million.

Combined, political strategists said, this means Blakeman needs to make a big impact — this week.

"His audience really is the donor class," said Michael McKeon, a GOP consultant and former press secretary to the last Republican to become New York governor, George Pataki.

"The issue is, if Blakeman can have a strong [debate] performance and generate buzz and then use that to drive money to his campaign for a strong finish," McKeon said. "But it’s getting very late. This is probably the last week he has to make a difference to raise money and spend it in time."

That’s because ads need to be crafted and television time purchased with enough cushion for the ads to run seven to 10 days to make an impression with voters, he said. Election Day is three weeks away, on Nov. 3. Early voting starts Oct. 24.

The one-hour debate is set for 7 p.m. on NY1 and Spectrum News cable stations and their online sites. It’s just the candidates and news panelists, no audience.

Neal Kwatra, a veteran Democratic campaign consultant, said the final three weeks are more about get-out-the-vote efforts for a candidate’s supporters than "persuasion time," meaning winning over undecided voters.

"Hochul needs to show she is not out of touch, that she recognizes people are struggling and that there is an affordability crisis. She has to guard against looking like she’s disconnected from everyday people," Kwatra said.

Blakeman, he said, can point to utility prices and the gasoline pump as real challenges for many people. But Hochul has a "strong retort" handy if she points to President Donald Trump’s war in Iran, trade war on Canada and other tariffs as driving up prices.

"It underscores a real challenge for Blakeman," Kwatra said. "And it is getting very late in the campaign."

Modern day debates, he added, have limited campaign impacts, unless "there is a significant faux pas" by one of the candidates.

With four weeks to go, the Marist University poll says Hochul leads Blakeman, 53-42; Siena says it's 50-41; and Emerson College calls it 52-40.

On the money change, Blakeman's balance, as of 32 days before the election, is far behind that of 2022 GOP candidate Lee Zeldin ($4.5 million) and trails 2018's Marc Molinaro ($210,000), 2014's Rob Astorino ($1.3 million), 2010's Carl Paladino ($210,000) and 2006's John Faso ($972,000).

Political leaders said the candidates will play to their strengths. 

"What’s more important is what happens after the debate," Jesse Garcia, the Suffolk County Republican chairman, said. "The punches that are landed by Bruce Blakeman, and I mean that politically, on issues will be able to be captured and be placed in everyone’s television screen, everyone’s inbox and emails and in everyone’s cellphone."

Garcia predicted a great performance by Blakeman that "will allow us to raise more money." He said a key will be "getting her on the defensive," referring to Hochul. The Suffolk Republican said the debate, combined with "his already aggressive campaign and the coalitions he is building (is) going to be the trigger that’s going to turn this race our way."

Jay Jacobs, the state and Nassau County Democratic Committee chairman, said the debate will give Hochul the chance to "set the record straight" about her accomplishments after five years in office. Importantly, she also will highlight Blakeman’s close ties with Trump, who has low approval ratings in New York.

"I think he’ll come with what Republicans think are great hit lines and name calling but I don’t think she has to take the bait," Jacobs said. "She has to establish she’s the adult in the room while allowing Blakeman to prove, once again, that he is devoted to Donald Trump and everything Trump is doing. I think the comparison will be of great benefit to her."