Potential ICE surge in New York City looms over Hochul-Blakeman race

ALBANY — U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement is quietly increasing the number of detention centers it runs across upstate New York.

President Donald Trump’s border czar has promised more than once that a surge of ICE agents is coming to New York City.

As the race for governor between Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul and Republican Bruce Blakeman moves toward its fall peak, signs are increasing that the Trump administration’s deportation program could take a larger presence in the state.

Both candidates have so far focused their campaign messages largely on the topic of affordability, but a large-scale immigration crackdown could upend the race and make Trump’s immigration agenda a central issue.

Although media attention on ICE raids has died down, a large show of immigration agents in New York could impact the political tenor for months, said Grant Reeher, a Syracuse University political science professor.

"Physical proximity is always important, so something in New York would focus the attention in New York for a while," Reeher said. "They are still talking about this issue in Minnesota, for example."

"It also depends on what else is in the news space. How long will the Iran war last? Will inflation start to curb when it ends? Will the president cook up something else for the media to focus on?"

The issue has the potential to present a stark contrast between the candidates.

Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, has been enthusiastic about ICE working with local law enforcement agencies. He signed an agreement to deputize 10 Nassau County police officers as ICE agents and is renting space in the county jail for ICE to hold detainees.

In a statement, Blakeman said Nassau County’s relationship with ICE demonstrated how New York could avoid a surge of federal agents. "By cooperating with ICE, a surge is not necessary in my county as we have removed many illegal migrants with criminal records for rape, robbery and other heinous crimes without raiding any schools, churches and daycare centers," he said.

Hochul, in contrast, signed a bill in May that bans the types of agreements that Nassau and several other counties have signed. She also has repeatedly said Trump told her there won’t be a surge of ICE agents in the state unless she requests it, and she has said that isn’t something she is looking to do.

Hochul repeated that vow Monday during an appearance in Buffalo, calling out Trump’s border czar Tom Homan. "So, I encourage Tom Homan to talk to the big boss and ask him his position," she said, "because I am not giving that invitation nor that permission."

ICE surge?

Polling has shown that voters in the state don’t have a high opinion of Trump or see immigration enforcement as a political priority. A Siena University poll last month found that only 9% of respondents named immigration when asked which issue they were most concerned with.

Newsday previously reported that fewer than 5% of the thousands of immigrants held in Nassau jail through the partnership with ICE were convicted of violent crimes. Nearly 60% had no criminal convictions or charges.

Nonetheless, there are clear signs the Trump administration is boosting its capabilities in the state.

Earlier this month, Hochul sent a letter to Department of Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin looking for answers after reports of three planned immigration detention projects in Rochester, Batavia and Newburgh. The department has not responded to Hochul’s letter, according to her office.

Homan promised during an interview on Fox News last weekend that an expanded ICE operation in New York was planned. And he made similar comments last month after Hochul signed the legislation that included a measure banning local law enforcement from formally cooperating with ICE on civil immigration enforcement.

"ICE is operating in New York City today. We're operating across the state today, but there's going to be a surge, and there needs to be a surge," he said in the Fox interview.

Homan declined to say when the increase of agents would happen, saying he didn’t want to tip off groups that might try to interfere with the planned operations. A Department of Homeland Security spokesperson also declined to comment on when any surge might happen.

While there has not been a sudden wave of ICE agents in cities across the state, there is already a steady drumbeat of immigrants being detained across the state, according to Murad Awawdeh, president and CEO of the New York Immigration Coalition.

Hundreds of immigrants have been showing up every day for hastily scheduled hearings at the federal courthouse at 26 Federal Plaza in Manhattan, Awawdeh said.

"If you're not paying attention to it every single day, you know it sort of falls to the wayside," he said. "But what we've been seeing is that the escalations have not stopped; they've only increased."

New state law

Blakeman and Hochul are already sparring over the new law barring cooperation agreements between local governments and ICE.

On Friday, Hochul and state Attorney General Letitia James sent Nassau and eleven other counties a letter warning that they must end their agreements. Blakeman previously said he may fight the state in court over the legislation.

The Department of Justice filed a federal lawsuit against the state last month, seeking to have the new laws struck down.

Reeher said that if ICE’s next move is to send a wave of agents into New York City, like it has in Minneapolis and Chicago, Hochul would likely benefit. "Hochul has been wanting to avoid the kind of violence and standoffs that other places have seen," he said, "but I doubt she’d get any of the political blame if ICE ramped up efforts here."

Reeher said that for Blakeman to be successful in November, the conversation needs to be about hammering Hochul on issues like economic competitiveness, taxes and budget growth. An immigration crackdown wouldn't do him any favors, he added.

"The inevitable ‘Which side are you on?’ fallout from an ICE surge in the state would put him on the wrong side of this issue and redirect the political attention away from the best issue on which he might get traction," Reeher said.

Any impact a surge might have on the governor's race would also affect swing district Congressional races, said Lawrence Levy, executive dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University.

"If the administration does something to push it nearer to the top again, and there's an impact in particular communities, you can lose a seat that you might have held onto," Levy said.

But there is also a potential upside for Blakeman with some voters. Blakeman's support for a surge might buy him support with voters who want to see close enforcement of immigration laws, Levy said.

It may be an issue that is outside of Blakeman’s control.

Levy noted that while a surge of immigration enforcement in a blue state like New York could hurt Republicans with some moderates, Trump has a track record of prioritizing his goals over what might be best for the candidates in swing districts.

"It wouldn't be far-fetched to think that he's looking to leverage their fear of him following through on this in a district to get something else he wants," he said.