Poll shows Hochul's lead over Blakeman narrowing to 10 points

ALBANY — Gov. Kathy Hochul leads Republican rival Bruce Blakeman by 10 points in a new Siena University poll — a drop of 10 points since June.

This was the first poll during this race in which Siena surveyed "likely" voters as opposed to a wider survey of "registered" voters. While it’s not unusual for that type of switch to tighten the gap between electoral rivals, and while it still gives the incumbent Democrat a healthy lead, it has some warning signs for Hochul.

First, Siena poll spokesman Steve Greenberg said: "With less than three months till Election Day, Hochul holds a 10-point lead over Blakeman, 49-39%, not crossing the magic 50% mark," a threshold that is more important for an incumbent than a challenger.

Second, Greenberg noted that her 10-point lead is smaller than the 14-point lead she had over then-Rep. Lee Zeldin in August 2022 in what would become a 6-point Hochul victory.

Siena surveyed 811 likely New York voters from Aug. 3 to 6. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points, meaning the answers to any question could vary that much.

Democratic incumbents held big advantages in the two other statewide races, according to Siena.

State Attorney General Letitia James led GOP challenger Saritha Komatireddy, 54% to 36%. State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli led Republican Joseph Hernandez, 55-32.

In the contest for governor, voters were split on Hochul and Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, on a variety of issues:

Hochul rated higher than Blakeman on questions about policy issues, including affordable prices and housing, immigration, energy and public safety. On each issue, voters said Hochul would do a better job than the Republican.

Blakeman rated higher than the governor on character issues, such as being "tough," honest" and "in touch with average New Yorkers," according to wording of the poll questions. He also rated higher when asked about the candidates’ ability to "get things done."

To no surprise, at least 80% of enrolled Democrats and Republicans favor their own party’s candidate. But Blakeman leads Hochul, 45% to 40%, among likely independent and minor-party voters, Siena found.

In a regional breakdown, Hochul leads 64-19 in New York City but Blakeman leads 49-41 in the metropolitan area's suburbs, including Long Island.

The two are in a dead heat upstate.

Republican President Donald Trump, whom some consider the most important factor in this year’s congressional and gubernatorial elections around the nation, still gets low marks in New York. Just 37% of likely voters surveyed by Siena said they approve of the job he is doing, while 60% disapprove.

By Yancey Roy

yancey.roy@newsday.com@yanceyroy