NYS gubernatorial election: Hochul courting Long Island voters, after losing here in 2022

Gov. Kathy Hochul stood behind a "crime is down on Long Island" lectern as she acknowledged the local elected officials in attendance, many of them Republicans.

"I come to Suffolk County often — other counties are starting to take note," Hochul humored at the police academy at Suffolk County Community College last month.

"And every time I come here, I'm reminded of what we're fighting for — strong neighborhoods, safe streets," Hochul continued.

Since the end of the legislative session in June, Hochul has been making her rounds on Long Island — a battleground region where she struggled in her first gubernatorial election, but where she seeks to make inroads among her fellow moderates four years later with competitive primary and general elections expected.

This summer, she's set the focus of her visits on the issues she presents as her staples: crime, education and the environment, with a focus on affordability. In Hicksville, she promoted her cellphone ban in schools. With environmental advocates, she announced millions of dollars for safer septic systems. 

While it has become normal for Hochul to make a handful of public visits to Long Island in the summer, political strategists and observers are taking note of her focus here as she begins her reelection campaign in earnest. 

"I believe she realizes that she made some strategic errors when it came to the suburban swing voters, who she knows very well from her service in Erie County," said Lawrence Levy, executive dean of Hofstra University’s National Center for Suburban Studies. He pointed to her initial housing policies and their respect for local zoning laws. "She eventually found her way."

Both the chairmen of the Nassau Democratic and Republican parties, in respective individual interviews, said they believe Hochul knows she needs to win favor from Long Island voters after a challenging election here in 2022.

“ ‘I got to play to cut my losses on the Island.’ That’s what I think she’s doing," Nassau GOP Chairman Joe Cairo said.

State Democratic Party Chairman Jay Jacobs, who also represents Nassau County, said: "The governor’s campaign team is smart to recognize that if you keep Long Island close, then Westchester will bring it over the top for the Democrats and for the governor — and that will close off any chance that Republicans have of winning the state." 

Hochul's campaign sees the governor continuing to make inroads here.

"Long Island will remain important to our campaign as we compete in every corner of the state," Hochul campaign spokeswoman Sarafina Chitika said in a statement.

Chitika also pointed to "Stefanik-Trump tariffs," name-dropping a potential Republican gubernatorial candidate, Rep. Elise Stefanik, in tandem with the president.

Campaign topics

Long Island is set up for a prominent role in the 2026 gubernatorial election, political experts said.

Important factors could include not only the state of the economy under the Trump administration, but also how the New York City mayoral primary victory of Queens Democratic Socialist Assemb. Zohran Mamdani might affect the broader statewide political map.

If Mamdani secures the office, the decisions Hochul makes in the upcoming budget cycle this coming spring — whether she chooses to greenlight his proposals, such as an increased tax on the wealthy to pay for his campaign promises — could provide fodder for her political opponents, the insiders said.

"The ‘Mamdani factor,’ in the end, should he win, could very well work toward her electoral advantage by allowing her to define who Kathy Hochul is and what she stands for, rather than some opportunistic Republican candidate," Jacobs said.

"The governor is not going to allow the city of New York to go socialist or to raise taxes on the rich so that high-income people flee the city and end up reducing revenue instead of raising it," Jacobs continued.

Unusual outcome

The outcome of the last gubernatorial election was unusual on Long Island: Voters of Nassau and Suffolk counties supported the loser, then-Rep. Lee Zeldin.

For a half-century before that, Long Island voters only twice didn’t back the victor in the governor’s race, 1978 and 1982, when they backed Lewis Lehrman over Mario Cuomo. By 1994, voters here would carry George Pataki to a narrow victory over Cuomo.

"Nassau and Suffolk — if not the key — is a key to victory next year," Cairo said.

Hochul has made six announced, noncampaign visits to Long Island since June, including a ribbon-cutting in Montauk on Friday. Over the same time period the last two years, Hochul and her lieutenant governor came, collectively, four times each year. In 2022, Hochul herself came five times to the region during the period.

In 2022, Zeldin, a Shirley Republican, was able to run a tight race, with 18% of the turnout coming from Long Island voters, up from the typical 15 to 16% of the gubernatorial electorate, according to a Newsday analysis of state election data.

But Hochul would go on to win the race by 6 percentage points, or nearly 380,000 votes.

"In statewide races, Long Island is important only when things get close," Hofstra's Levy said. "It’s obvious Hochul is anticipating the possibility of a competitive primary."

Long Island has also remained an important part of Hochul’s fundraising base.

Hochul has received about 10% of her campaign contributions from donors giving from a Long Island ZIP code, according to a Newsday analysis. This past filing period, the Long Island money accounted for 14% of her haul.

Estranged challenger

In a potential Democratic primary, her now-estranged lieutenant governor, Antonio Delgado, has been campaigning for governor on a "tax the rich" agenda, appearing to link himself to Mamdani’s politics.

"Long Island is a vital part of building the winning coalition that will take us to victory," Delgado campaign spokesman Steven Ileka said in a statement.

He noted Delgado's affordability platform on housing, child care and health for "solving problems that Long Islanders face every day."

William Bailey, senior director for New York Communities for Change, said it’s important to remember that Long Island is not just made up of Republicans and moderate Democratic voters. Instead, Bailey pointed to the "corridor" in Hempstead, Roosevelt and Freeport, which "continuously get forgotten about."

"If anybody is smart and they see working class people are not playing anymore," said Bailey, who lives in Elmont. "Mamdani saw what the people wanted."

'Key bellwether'

In 2022, more registered voters held a favorable view of Hochul than did not, according to polling by the Siena College Research Institute. In a Siena poll this month, more people held an unfavorable view of the governor — a four-point downward swing.

It remains unclear who will be the Republican candidate for governor.

While Stefanik is considering a run, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman remains a name discussed in Republican circles. A spokesman for Blakeman, Chris Boyle, did not answer a request for comment.

"Long Island has shifted into the key bellwether for the state that is now heavily trending in the Republican direction," Alex DeGrasse, senior adviser to Stefanik, said in a statement. "The key in 2026” will be to build on Zeldin’s high-turnout base on Long Island.

Stefanik is expected to attend a GOP clam bake in Suffolk County this month.

Jesse Garcia, chairman of the Suffolk County GOP, said he’s "not surprised that Gov. Hochul has been visiting Long Island and trying to chip away."

When reflecting on Hochul's July visit to Suffolk County, touting a drop in crime, Garcia put it another way:

"Republicans are flattered that she acknowledges the work that Republicans have done in Suffolk County to bring down crime, even in the face of her failed policies."

Hochul offered her crime statistics from a statewide vantage point, too: "One of the lowest violent crime rates in America is in your home state of New York. You may not know that from watching certain news stations, but it's the reality — because strategies like this are working."