Hochul largely keeps her distance, as pressure builds for LIRR resolution

ALBANY — The threat of a Long Island Rail Road strike delivered an unexpected test for Gov. Kathy Hochul in an election year when she holds a big lead and wants to avoid missteps, experts told Newsday.

It also handed a potential weapon to the governor’s Republican opponent, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman.

Hochul, a Democrat, largely has distanced herself from the contract fray between the Metropolitan Transportation Authority and the five labor unions. On Wednesday, she was on Long Island for a separate news event but merely said of the strike that she was urging the sides to find some "middle ground."

On Friday, she got more involved. She phoned into a negotiations meeting and stepped up her call for a settlement.

"Gov. Hochul called into this morning’s negotiations with one simple message: getting a deal requires both sides to work together, including labor. Nobody wins in a strike — riders will suffer and thousands of workers will lose out on wages they need," an aide said by email.

As governor, Hochul effectively controls the MTA. And the fallout could land primarily on her as the state’s top elected official.

"The MTA is the governor’s agency," Hank Sheinkopf, a veteran Democratic strategist said. "Strike happens, she wears it. Strike doesn’t happen, she wears it."

The political stakes might hinge on the length of a stoppage.

"If it’s just a day or two, no big deal," said Michael Dawidziak, a Long Island Republican strategist. "But if it stretches on to a week or two weeks, there is going be a lot pain and suffering and elected officials are doing to hear about it."

The unions risk looking greedy at a time when Americans are dealing with rising prices on gasoline and other items because of Trump tariffs and the war in Iran, Dawidziak and others said. But labor won’t be the target of riders’ anger.

"Voters don’t vote for the union," Dawidziak said. "All the unions have to worry about is their membership and their jobs. It’s up to elected officials to look out for the citizens."

That Hochul has distanced herself so far is a potential mistake, he said.

"It’s like handing a bat to Bruce Blakeman and saying ‘Hit me with this’," Dawidziak said.

Others agreed.

"Distancing herself would be a mistake," Lawrence Levy, dean of suburban studies at Hofstra University, said. "This is a chance to reaffirm the image of a strong leader that she has been trying to promote. ... She has a chance to earn points, even with commuters, by stepping in aggressively to make sure the trains run somewhat on time."

Christopher Malone, associate provost at Farmingdale State University, said Hochul needs to show her electoral base, which includes major unions, that she is involved – but timing is tricky.

“No politician wants to jump into something unless they pretty much know the outcome,” Malone said. “So she probably is looking for a moment where she can come in and save the day.

“If she can find a way to bring closure, then she’s going to be able to claim some type of victory. But there definitely is danger in seeming aloof when the left flank of her party needs her to be there.”

Experts have noted that the LIRR collective bargaining process is governed by federal law, not state. But New York’s federal representatives say it’s in the hands of the state, MTA and unions.

"The ball is currently in the MTA’s and the unions’ court," Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) said.

"These negotiations belong in New York, not Congress," Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-Bayport) said.

Newsday’s Matthew Chayes and Billy House contributed to this story.

By Yancey Roy

yancey.roy@newsday.com@yanceyroy