Siena poll: Hochul leads Zeldin by 11 points; Quinnpiac says 4
Gov. Kathy Hochul, left, and Republican candidate for governor Rep. Lee Zeldin. Credit: James Carbone/Craig Ruttle
ALBANY — A new Siena College poll shows Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul leading Republican Lee Zeldin by 11 percentage points, narrowing her advantage since Labor Day but still providing a double-digit lead with three weeks to go.
Meanwhile, another poll from Quinnipiac University, which projects a depressed Democratic turnout on Election Day, says Zeldin is within 4 percentage points.
It was a case of dueling polls and methodologies released with just three weeks to go
In the Siena survey, Hochul garnered support from 52% of likely voters, compared with 41% for Zeldin.
The Siena results are similar to results reported last week in a Marist College poll, which found Hochul leading by 10 percentage points among registered voters and 8 among those who said they are definitely voting.
The outlier, for now, is Quinnipiac, which said Hochul leads, 50-46.
A closer look at the Siena and Quinnipiac samples indicates why the results might differ.
In New York state, Democrats account for about 50% of registered voters; Republicans, 22%; independents, 23%; and minor-party members, 5%.
The Siena survey of 707 voters was based on a turnout of 47% Democrats, 31% Republicans and 17% independents. That's in line with New York elections when the President isn't on the ballot — the Republican share of the electorate rises while the Democratic and independent share dips.
Quinnipiac's survey appears to be made up of 39% Democrats, 24% Republicans and 31% independents — "appears to be" because Quinnipiac didn't ask respondents whether they were enrolled in a party but rather which party they identified with.
The recent polls also gave distinctly different readings of New York City voters: Siena and Marist had Zeldin at 23% in the five boroughs; Quinnipiac says 37%.
Zeldin would have to top every Republican in recent memory to hit 37%. George Pataki, the last Republican governor, garnered 26% of the city vote when he was first elected in '1994 and 30% in 1998 which was his best election year.
One thing all the polls would agree on is Hochul's lead has shrunk. In September, Siena had her ahead by 17 points.
“Over the last three weeks, Zeldin has narrowed the deficit he must overcome from 17 points to 11 points,” said Steve Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena Research Institute, in a statement. “However, with three weeks to go, Hochul maintains the upper hand, based on the 84%-10% support she gets from Democrats, who represent half the state’s enrolled voters.”
Democrats hold double-digit advantages in all the statewide contests on the ballot this year, according to Siena.
U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer leads Republican Joe Pinion, 55% to 36%. Attorney General Letitia James leads Republican Michael Henry, 51-40. Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli leads Republican Paul Rodriguez, 54-30.
Quinnipiac says Schumer leads Pinion, 54-42. It didn't poll the other statewide contests.
Siena also found strong support for a statewide referendum asking voters to approve $4.2 in borrowing to finance new environmental projects: 54% favored it; 26% opposed.
Siena surveyed 707 likely voters from Oct. 12-14. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Quinnipiac surveyed 1,617 voters from Oct. 12-16; it has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
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