Hochul facing pressure from left and right in an important election year
ALBANY — It is a big year for Gov. Kathy Hochul, and the kickoff of the 2026 legislative session could lay the foundation for how it ends.
Hochul is facing a tight budget and financial cuts from the Trump administration.
She will face political pressure from the left in trying to accommodate a new and popular New York City mayor and from environmental activists frustrated by some of the governor’s recent actions.
She will face it from the right in the form of a Republican gubernatorial challenger eager to make Hochul and Mayor Zohran Mamdani a punching bag.
WHAT NEWSDAY FOUND
- Gov. Kathy Hochul is facing a big year as the 2026 legislative session gets underway.
- She is facing a tight budget and financial cuts from the Trump administration. She will face pressure from the left in trying to accommodate New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and from environmental activists frustrated by some of the governor’s recent actions. She also will face it from the right in the form of a Republican gubernatorial challenger.
- She'll also have to do all of it with an eye toward November, when she not only will try to win reelection but also impact down-ballot congressional races that could tip the balance of power in Washington.
And she’ll have to do all of it with an eye toward November, when she not only will try to win reelection but also be a strong enough candidate to impact down-ballot congressional races that could tip the balance of power in Washington.
“It’s not pure hyperbole to say that there never has been more at stake now for New York State, politically and policy-wise, than any other modern-day midterm election cycle,” said Lawrence Levy, dean of suburban studies at Hofstra University. “Thus, every line of every budget proposal and bill will be directed toward gaining ground in November and that, in turn, will drive a focus on affordability — particularly on housing, energy and food — public perception of crime and the appeal of the party brands.”
Hochul will outline her agenda in two important speeches this month. On Tuesday, she will deliver the annual State of the State address in which a governor presents an aspirational and thematic view of enacting policy. On Jan. 20, those themes have to be backed by real dollars and cents as the governor proposes a state budget for the 2026-27 fiscal year.
Hochul is sounding more confident than in 2022, when she won a closer-than-expected election over then-Congressman Lee Zeldin, a Long Island Republican. Now in her fifth year as governor, the Buffalo Democrat has a comfortable lead in the polls and analysts point out that midterm election years — when a president isn’t running — tend to favor the party not in the White House, which means Democrats this time.
“Excellent. Really strong,” Hochul answered in response to a media question about how she is feeling about heading into an election year.
“We’ve been through a lot. And we’ve been battle-tested with everything that’s come our way,” she said, citing the most recent challenge: President Donald Trump’s move to withhold funding for needy families in five Democratic-led states. Trump has claimed, without providing evidence, that the system is rife with fraud.
The governor — noting not only Mamdani, but new mayors in Albany, Buffalo and Syracuse — said: “There’s a lot of energy around the state now. … Everybody’s excited about the possibilities and how we manage through very unusual circumstances.”
Hochul already has said “affordability” will be her mantra this year — earning sharp responses from Republicans who said they’ve been preaching it for years. Generally, rather than expand programs and state aid, they would rather reduce taxes and spending.
“We know affordability is going to be a major topic, as it has been,” Senate Minority Leader Rob Ortt, a Niagara County Republican, said Wednesday on the first day of the day of the 2026 legislative session.
“There is, at times, a difference in how we define affordability and our solutions to that,” Ortt said. “Our conference does believe, and will continue to advocate, that one of the ways to make things more affordable for New Yorkers is to put more of their money back in their pockets. Let them keep more of their hard-earned money in any way we can do that.”
Affordability is a theme that not only seeks to ride the political winds, but also dovetails with Mamdani's successful election strategy.
Hochul has begun unveiling some of her proposals: Rapidly expanding child care assistance in the wake of federal cuts and capping taxes on tips. On crime and safety, she is touting declining crime rates while proposing laws to block the spread of homemade and untraceable so-called “ghost guns,” which are made with 3D printers.
She has slowed down some of New York’s green energy goals, irking environmental groups, while stressing it’s about holding down electricity costs for average New Yorkers.
All told, it’s a middle ground Hochul has occupied for a while, said Jack O’Donnell, a veteran lobbyist and consultant from Buffalo.
“Having to balance the far left and right is Kathy Hochul’s sweet spot,” O’Donnell said. “She is about finding the center.”
O’Donnell said the potential potholes for Hochul include possible federal cutbacks to things such as child care, health care and mass transit.
Hochul also must fend off any perception of “the tail wagging the dog” — that Mamdani, a democratic socialist, is driving the agenda and not her.
Basil Smikle Jr., a former executive director of the state Democratic Party, said Mamdani “is smart enough not to do that.”
Smikle’s tenure as a party leader included the period when, as he put it, then-Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo and then-Mayor Bill de Blasio were trying to “bigfoot" one another on control of education and other issues, and frequently battled publicly. Smikle said Mamdani and Hochul should have a better working relationship with each trying to help the other achieve some of his or her agenda.
For example, on Thursday, Hochul and Mamdani held a joint news conference to announce plans to increase access to prekindergarten and aid and tax credits for child care — a key priority for each.
“I don’t think you’ll see Mamdani do anything blatantly challenging the governor,” said Smikle, now a Columbia University professor. If there is “visible tension” between the two, it could affect Hochul’s success with the state budget and her ability to “mobilize the Mamdani coalition” heading into November's midterms.
What Hochul needs to do is deliver tangible benefits for New Yorkers on health care, housing and household costs on food, Smikle said.
“The success of the governor isn’t going to be in signing on to a Mamdani abundance agenda," he said, "but creating an abundance agenda for the entire state.”
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