Politics newsletter: A deeper look at early voting numbers

Early voting numbers are booming across New York state. That doesn’t necessarily mean the final turnout numbers for this year’s election will skyrocket, but let’s look under the hood, as the phrase goes.

Data from the state Board of Elections show 918,633 New Yorkers cast ballots in just the first four days of early voting this year. An impressive number.

It’s nearly double the same four-day period in 2022. In fact, 1.1 million people early voted during the entire nine-day window in 2022, a number that 2026 probably will surpass by Day Five. Numbers also are up on Long Island.

But no one is going so far as to say overall turnout for 2026 will double. That’s because researchers now know a thing or two about early voting.

The overwhelming majority of early voters would have voted on Election Day anyway, Charles Stewart, a political-science professor at MIT and founding director of the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, told National Public Radio in a recent interview.

So overall turnout still is a guess. But some things are clear.

He said the surge — which is going on nationwide — certainly reflects a high level of interest in the midterm election. Further, it reflects increased campaign spending encouraging voters to go to the polls early. There is just more awareness and voters are taking advantage of the convenience.

And while Democrats still tend to have higher early vote turnout than Republicans, the cap narrowed significantly as the GOP moves from shunning to embracing participation, analysts have said.

Pollsters have said voter enthusiasm is high this year. In the last two statewide elections in New York, in 2022 and 2018, about 6 million votes were cast in the contest for governor, far surpassing previous ones. By next week, we’ll know if New Yorkers set a record in 2026.

Here's Newsday's voters guide for Tuesday's election.

By Yancey Roy

yancey.roy@newsday.com@yanceyroy