Hochul has 20-point lead over Blakeman, but he makes gains, Siena poll finds

ALBANY — Gov. Kathy Hochul holds a 20-point lead over Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman with eight months until the election, according to the latest poll from the Siena Research Institute.

But Blakeman, the Republican nominee for governor, is starting to cut into Hochul’s lead.

The poll found Hochul leads Blakeman 51% to 31%, down from a 26-point lead in January.

Siena pollster Steven Greenberg attributed Blakeman’s gains to Republicans coalescing around their nominee and Hochul losing support among men and in the New York City suburbs.

Greenberg said previous polls had Hochul leading Blakeman by 22 points among men statewide. That lead is now four. In the suburbs, her overall lead has shrunk from 14 points to two.

“Democrats still outnumber Republicans more than two-to-one, so it’s not surprising to see Hochul continue to maintain a large double-digit lead over Blakeman, although it’s tightened a little bit in the last month,” Greenberg said in a statement.

The poll surveyed 805 registered voters in the state from Feb. 23 to Feb. 26. The margin of error was 4.5%

Blakeman is still widely unknown to voters in the state, with 61% saying they had never heard of Blakeman or have no opinion of him.

The poll also found Democrat and Republican voters support statements made by a politician of the opposite party — if they didn’t know who made the comment.

The poll read voters six statements — three by each Blakeman and Hochul — and asked the respondents if they supported them. The statements focused on public safety, the cost of living and the economy.

For example, one statement attributed to Hochul said, "It is time that we cut the red tape that too often slows down projects and let communities build, so we can offer all New Yorkers the more affordable and livable state that they deserve." One attributed to Blakeman said, "Talking about the economy, one state leader said, “It’s grocery bills, utility costs, rent, property taxes, and paychecks that don’t go far enough. Families don’t need more rhetoric — they need results.” Who made the remarks was not revealed to respondents.

Between 68% and 90% of Republicans supported Hochul’s three statements, while 67% to 87% of Democrats said they supported Blakeman’s statements, according to the poll. Independent voters had a similar margin, with 70% to 90% saying they agreed with all six statements.

“Maybe the divisions in our politics are more related to the ideological and media silos that voters place themselves in, rather than the actual words and promises from the candidates,” Greenberg said.

The poll also found support for raising personal income taxes on New York City residents who make more than $1 million.

Mayor Zohran Mamdani has asked the state to approve a 2% tax hike on millionaires, along with a tax increase on corporations, to close a $5 billion budget gap and support his agenda.

The poll found that respondents statewide supported the idea of raising taxes on the wealthy by a 54% to 29% margin, with 62% of New York City residents in support. That support shrank among those who live outside the city. Downstate suburban voters support the measure by a margin of 50% to 32%, and 48% of upstate voters voiced support for the tax hike while 35% opposed it.