Analysts: Redistricting map helps Democrats in state, Congress

ALBANY — New York State's new congressional map gives a huge boost to Democrats’ efforts to not only dominate the state delegation but also win control of the House of Representatives, analysts and politicians agreed Monday.

With the new map, set to be approved by the State Legislature on Wednesday, New York’s congressional delegation could go from 19-8 in favor of the Democrats to 22-4.

Republicans called the map, which could reduce the number of seats they hold in New York in half, a "brazen and outrageous attempt at rigging the election."

"For all of their phony protestations about transparency and fairness in elections, what they’re doing is textbook filthy, partisan gerrymandering that is clearly in violation of the New York State Constitution," said GOP state chairman Nick Langworthy, adding that he was considering a lawsuit, though several experts said it would be an "uphill" challenge to legally overturn the maps.

Democrats countered they are making changes to a map that, for too long, gave Republicans outsized influence in a blue state.

"Ten years ago, when Republicans were proposing lines, Nick Langworthy and his party were mute," said Jay Jacobs, state Democratic chairman. "Now, when Democrats are undoing a good amount of previously gerrymandered lines, of course, you’re going to have the Republican chairman screaming. It’s no surprise and it comes with no merit."

At issue is the decennial process of redrawing congressional districts around the nation based on the latest U.S. Census. New York is losing one seat, dropping to 26.

The mapmaking process is controlled by the State Assembly and Senate, which, for decades, featured split control and gave Republicans an outsized role in drawing districts despite their 2-1 voter enrollment disadvantage.

Split control ended in 2018 when Democrats took over the Senate; they cemented power in 2020 by winning a two-thirds majority in both houses, guaranteeing they can approve any congressional map the party wants.

In the end, the Democratic-drawn map created four relatively solid Republican districts with 22 Democratic-leaning districts.

Common Cause, a watchdog group, called the new map a "disservice" to voters because it renders some districts "noncompetitive." The group wants lines to be drawn by an independent panel, not the State Legislature.

Jacobs said Democrats won’t "unilaterally disarm" in New York when GOP-controlled states are helping their own candidates.

"In so many Republican-controlled states, their legislatures are twisting districts like pretzels in order to make sure no Democrat can get elected," Jacobs said.

Michael Dawidziak, a Long Island political consultant who mostly works with Republicans, called it a "masterpiece of gerrymandering."

"What the Democrats are saying is we’re going to gerrymander four safe Republican districts and it gives them a shot at winning all the others," Dawidziak said. He said Republicans can "only complain about it so much" because the party is pursuing aggressive strategies in the states it controls.

"The Republicans will probably take this to court, but I don’t see it going very far," Dawidziak said.

Dan Lamb, a Cornell University professor and former longtime congressional aide, agreed.

"In New York, this is a process that looks, on its face, to be legal," Lamb said. He noted recent U.S. Supreme Court decisions show the bench is extremely reluctant to get involved in redistricting lawsuits.

The Democrats’ strategy plays out clearly on the eastern end of Long Island.

The map appears to sacrifice the party’s chances for unseating Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-Bayport) in the 2nd Congressional District in exchange for having a shot at winning the 1st Congressional District, held by Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley), who is running for governor.

The new 1st District would include big chunks of Islip and extend just north of Farmingdale in Nassau County, among other changes. It would go from a district that favored Trump 52%-47% to one that favored Biden 55%-44%, analysts have found.

Meanwhile, Garbarino’s district becomes more Republican: Going from 52%-48% in favor of Trump to 57%-43%.

"The enrollment definitely becomes more Republican," Garbarino said Monday, adding that he is running for reelection. "It’s an all South Shore district. It’s where I grew up. I know the needs of the district."

He acknowledged the GOP will have a tougher time holding Zeldin’s seat, but called the district a "toss up."

"The district is gaining more registered Democrats, but people don’t vote on registration alone," Garbarino said. "You can get those crossover votes if you have the right message."

Grant Reeher, a Syracuse University political scientist, said New York has become more Democratic and more progressive since the last map was drawn 10 years ago and the changes reflect that. A shift to more "blue" seats was always likely, Reeher said.

"You’d almost have to gerrymander even more thoroughly to leave it as it was," he said.