Bail reform hasn't led to a surge in crime in New York State, but critics want tougher laws anyway

Data shows the move to limit the use of bail in New York hasn’t led to suspects going free to commit more crimes, even while opponents continue to call for a repeal.

To some degree, studies indicate the elimination of bail for low-level suspects has led to slightly reduced recidivism, according to researchers who have been tracking the impact of the 2019 bail-law overhaul.

Yet the rhetoric around the subject doesn't always match the research.

President Donald Trump recently denounced states that have limited or largely eliminated bail, while erroneously contending accused murderers can be released quickly without having to post bail.

Here is a look at key things to know about the impact of bail laws and crime trends, contrasting with what politicians are saying and what polls are revealing about perceptions of safety.

Motive for changing the law

Defendants who are arraigned can be detained outright in jail until trial or released. Or a judge can set bail, which means the defendant can be released once he posts bail. As long as the defendant returns for trial, the money can be repaid.

As State Sen. Anthony Palumbo (R-New Suffolk), an attorney, puts it: "Bail was intended to ensure you return to court."

New York and some other states began limiting the use of bail in the past decade because some critics said it created a two-tiered justice system: Well-off defendants who could post bail and remain free until trial and poor defendants who had to sit weeks, months or years in jail before trial.

The case of Kalief Browder was a rallying cry for change advocates. Browder spent three years locked up in Rikers Island awaiting trial for allegedly stealing a backpack. The case eventually was dismissed, but Browder later committed suicide.

The 2019 law eliminated bail for most misdemeanors and nonviolent felonies; it was signed into law by then-Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo.

No quick release for accused murderers

In New York and other states that have changed bail laws, murder remains on the list of crimes for which a judge can impose bail.

"There is not a single jurisdiction in the country whose bail reform eliminated pretrial detention for people accused of murder," said Michael Rempel, director of the Data Collaborative for Justice at John Jay College, which has been conducting long-term studies of bail reform.

"Someone accused of murder can post bail and be released — but that was the case before and after any states passed bail reform," Rempel added.

No increase in recidivism, or decrease

One of the claims of critics is defendants will be charged and released without bail and go on to commit other crimes while out. But the proportion of criminal suspects who fit that category remains relatively small and has ticked downward slightly.

Studies by John Jay College found the "rearrest" rate for suspects across New York prior to the 2019 bail reform and after didn’t change much.

In a study that sought to measure rearrest rates while adjusting for criminal charges, defendant's history and other factors, John Jay said the overall rate was 41.3% pre-reform and 40.7% post-reform.

Further, for first-time offenders, the rate dropped from 33% to 29%. 

For those who had a prior arrest (a subset of the overall tally), the rearrest rate did climb from 60% to 66%.

A different study by the University at Albany concluded "findings suggest that the effect of bail reform on crime rate increases is negligible."

Attacks on bail don't match crime rates

According to the state Division of Criminal Justice Services, New York’s crime rate had been dropping steadily till a COVID-19 pandemic spike. Now, it’s back down again.

For example, outside of New York City the number of major "index" crimes tracked by the state numbered 225,013 in 2014, fell to 167,011 in 2019, grew to 186,161 in 2022 and fell to 177,661 in 2024.

From 2023 to 2024, the rate dropped 8%.

New York City has been different. After bottoming out with 170,120 in 2019, the number jumped to 237,654 in 2022 and 248,237 in 2023. In 2024, the number dipped 1%, to 246,651.

Yet New Yorkers have been telling pollsters they think crime is worse.

In a Siena College poll in August 2024, 54% of voters said crime was getting worse in the state; 16% said it was getting better. At the same time, a majority of people generally have said crime in their community is about the same.

"There’s certainly a variance between the concerns people have and the crime statistics," Don Levy, pollster for Siena College, told Newsday at the time of the poll.

Return to toughening the law

More than once, New York lawmakers under political pressure have acted in Albany to toughen the bail law. They’ve added more than 20 crimes back to the "bail-eligible" list, giving judges more authority to set bail in a variety of circumstances, including domestic violence, gun crimes and cases involving certain repeat offenders.

Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat who succeeded Cuomo, has pushed legislators to add more crimes to the list and to end a requirement that judges use the "least restrictive" option when determining whether to set a defendant free with or without bail.

But those changes have been "cosmetic" in the view of Palumbo. He thinks judges should be allowed to weigh a person’s "dangerousness" in determining release conditions, a degree of latitude that goes too far for a majority of the State Legislature.

"They have added some crimes back to the list. They are making small, incremental steps to a little bit better system," Palumbo, ranking Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee, said. "But there are many aspects that are still terrible."

He’s skeptical of some of the state statistics, saying a person with multiple arrests for petit larceny (shoplifting) can be treated as one case, for instance. And that such "quality of life" crimes can lead to more serious crimes.

"Analyzing data won’t give you the true picture," Palumbo said.

His counterpart disagrees.

"The issue of bail is being used, clearly, for political gain, to hell with the statistics," State Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Brad Hoylman-Sigal (D-Manhattan) said.

He said Republicans have either "misunderstood" or "intentionally misrepresented" the point of bail or sought to convey that it no longer exists in New York or that it is a tool to keep criminals off the streets.

 "Bail still exists. It’s just been limited to instances where the defendant is likely not to return to court," Hoylman-Sigal said. "It's certainly not about putting people behind bars who otherwise would show up for the court date."

By Yancey Roy

yancey.roy@newsday.com@yanceyroy