Suffolk playoff seeds still TBD

With only a handful of games left on the schedule, none of the four playoff match-ups in Suffolk have been determined, despite all eight playoff berths having already been clinched.

The only sure things is that Smithtown (18-1, 36 points) and Connnetquot-Sayville (16-1, 32 points) will own the top two seeds, but even then, first place is still up for grabs. After that, only two points separate the third- and sixth-place teams, and the eighth seed, St. John the Baptist, can still move up to either seventh- or sixth- place by season’s end.

It is pretty confusing, but here’s a look at how things can turn out.

First, these are the tiebreakers the league uses to determine playoff positioning if teams finish the season with the same amount of points:
 
If there is a two-way tie in the standings, playoff positioning is determined by

1. Most wins
2. Best head-to-head record
3. Fewest goals allowed in head-to-head games
4. Fewest goals allowed in League games
5. Coin Toss

If there is a three-way tie in the standings, playoff positioning is determined by

1. Most wins
2. Best head-to-head record in games against other two teams
3. Fewest goals allowed in games against other two teams
4. Fewest goals allowed in League games
5. Coin Toss

Here’s what the battle for first place looks like:

It is possible that there will be at least a two-way tie for one of the bottom six seeds, but it’s more likely that Connetquot-Sayville and Smithtown will ultimately finish with the same amount of points. In the latter scenario, it would take at least the fourth tiebreaker, fewest league goals allowed, to determine which team clinches the number-one seed.

The T-Birds and Bulls split their two contests this season and each allowed six goals in those two games. Connetquot-Sayville has allowed 10 fewer league goals than Smithtown to this point, but does have three games remaining where Smithtown only has one. In the end, first place could be decided by the number of goals the T-Birds allow in their final three games, assuming both teams win out.

Now the fight for the third, fourth and fifth seeds:

Sachem (24 points) finished its regular season and currently holds fourth place. Kings Park-Commack (25 points) and Half Hollow Hills (24 points) each have one game remaining, and sit in third and fifth place, respectively. Sachem will only remain in fourth place if Hills does not earn a point in its final game. Otherwise, the Arrows will drop to fifth. KPC cannot drop below fourth place and controls its own destiny for third place.

Here’s a breakdown of how each team can clinch either third or fourth place:

KPC will clinch third place if
        -It wins its final game OR
        -It ties or loses in OT, and Hills loses or ties OR
        -It loses, and Hills loses

Hills will clinch third place if
        -It wins, and KPC loses or ties OR
        -It ties or loses in OT, and KPC loses in regulation

Hills will clinch fourth place if
        -It wins, and KPC wins OR
        -It ties or loses in OT, and KPC wins, ties or loses in OT

Sachem will clinch fourth place if
        -Hills loses its final game in regulation
 
Finally, the race for sixth:

East Islip (23 points) also finished its regular season and currently holds sixth place. West Islip (19 points) is in seventh place and has two games remaining, and SJB (17 points) is in eighth place with three games remaining.

SJB controls its own destiny in the race for sixth because it holds tiebreakers over East Islip and West Islip, and will clinch the sixth seed if it wins all three of its remaining games. That will be difficult, however, with both Connetquot-Sayville and Smithtown still on its schedule.

West Islip loses a tiebreak with both SJB and East Islip, so it can’t move up to sixth place. West Islip will move down to eighth place if it ultimately has the same amount of points as SJB.

East Islip can finish no lower than seventh place since, again, it holds the tiebreak over West Islip if the two finish with the same amount of points.  

And there’s sill a ways to go:

While Hills, KPC and West Islip all wrap up their seasons by Monday, SJB and Connetquot-Sayville will still have games leading right up to the first playoff games on Feb. 8.

As of now, it looks like the final standings won’t be set until the last game of the season, when Connetquot-Sayville plays St. Anthony’s-Suffolk on Feb. 6.