2025 Atlantic hurricane season still predicted to be above normal by NOAA
NOAA’s geostationary and polar-orbiting satellites provide vital information for monitoring and forecasting hurricanes and tropical weather that threaten lives and property. Credit: NOAA
An above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025 is forecast to continue through November, according to a prediction from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The prediction, issued Thursday, forecasts 13 to 18 named storms (meaning maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or more). Of those, five to nine could turn into hurricanes (with sustained winds of 74 mph or more) and two to five of them into major hurricanes (111 mph sustained winds or higher).
"The likelihood of above-normal activity is 50%, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and a 15% chance of a below-normal season," the prediction said.
The updated prediction is similar to what the agency issued in May.
The Atlantic hurricane season, from June 1 through Nov. 30, generally has 14 named storms, seven of which turn into hurricanes and three into major hurricanes.
So far, there have been four named tropical storms.
The agency's report has no direct takeaway for Long Island and New York City, but increased activity boosts the chances of a storm, or storms, making landfall, according to National Weather Service meteorologist David Wally.
"If you have more storms, obviously, there's going to be an increased probability that somebody gets impacted somewhere," he said.
Still, he noted, there have been active seasons in which many storms have not made landfall.
He urges people to learn now whether they live in an evacuation zone — a low-lying area that is susceptible to storm surge and flooding — before a bad storm and to have a plan for where to go. In a weather emergency, the authorities might order evacuations of certain zones.
On Long Island, most zones are south of Sunrise Highway, although other areas are flood-prone.
In Suffolk County, the zones are mapped here; in Nassau, maps are here; and in New York City, the zones are mapped here.
Recent tropical storms that passed over Long Island or New York City include Hanna in 2008, which moved over the Island; Irene in 2011, which moved over the city; and Elsa in 2021, which passed over the South Fork, according to National Weather Service meteorologist Brian Ciemnecki. The remnants of Hurricane Ida in September 2021 left more than 13,200 Long Islanders without power and the Long Island Rail Road suspended service, Newsday reported.
Technically, Superstorm Sandy in 2012, which never made landfall on Long Island but brought wind, rain, coastal flooding and destruction, didn't count as a hurricane once it reached the area.
In 2020, Tropical Storm Isaias caused high winds that cut power to over 400,000 customers people, led to the cancellation of dozens of flights, downed wires, toppled trees and more.
The last hurricane to make landfall on the Island was Gloria, in 1985.
"Don't get obsessed with the number of storms," Wally said. "The best thing is to simply be prepared for the season, make sure you have a plan and a place to go and know where your evacuation zones are, know if you're in an evac [zone] ... particularly those who are near water."
Matthew Chayes, a Newsday reporter since 2007, covers New York City.
'We have to do better' Newsday high school sports editor Gregg Sarra talks about a bench-clearing, parent-involved incident at a Half Hollow Hills West basketball game.
'We have to do better' Newsday high school sports editor Gregg Sarra talks about a bench-clearing, parent-involved incident at a Half Hollow Hills West basketball game.
