Hurricane watch: Forecasters predicting busy storm season
Long Islanders can only hope that 2025's predicted active hurricane season won't lead to scenes like the one above: crews trying to clear abandoned vehicles from a flooded street in September 2021 in Herricks after a storm. Credit: Howard Schnapp
Ahead of the August start of peak hurricane season, National Weather Service meteorologists said key climate factors were in place for a busy year and geographically vulnerable areas like Long Island should be prepared.
Those factors include warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures and below average wind shear, David Wally, lead meteorologist and tropical team leader for the National Weather Service in New York City said in a Wednesday briefing. Warm sea surface temperatures act as fuel for tropical storms and hurricanes; wind shear, or changes in wind speed and direction, disrupt a storm’s structure, preventing it from evolving into a hurricane. A predicted active West African monsoon season could also contribute to more hurricanes and named storms than usual, he said.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the weather service’s parent agency, has predicted between 13 and 19 named storms, 6 to10 hurricanes and 3 to 5 major hurricanes. So far NOAA has recorded just two named Atlantic storms, Andrea and Barry, neither of which made landfill on the eastern seaboard.
But even lesser storms can cause widespread damage and even death — especially in areas like Long Island and New York City with low-lying areas susceptible to flooding and storm surge, said Nelson Vaz, warning coordination meteorologist.
"New York has the number two storm surge risk after Florida," he said. "There are people, populations and infrastructure in areas that can be affected ... This is a big risk to our area."
Superstorm Sandy, which killed over 100 people, did $70 billion in damage and cut power to 3 million people, some for as long as two weeks, is the most prominent recent example of a deadly non-hurricane, but other large, slow-moving systems have dumped enough rain to cause dangerous flash-flooding, he said. In 2021, the remnants of Hurricane Ida dumped as much as 4 inches of rain per hour on Long Island. Ernesto in 2024 dumped more than 6 inches over three hours and more than 9 inches over 24 hours.
Rainfall like that can occur many hours ahead of the arrival of the actual storm system, disrupting preparations by officials and civilians, Vaz said.
NOAA has previously announced it will be using new forecasting tools this hurricane season. They include upgrades to the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System expected to improve tracking and intensity forecasts, added lead time for advisories about storm surge and tropical storm-force winds on land and changes to the Global Tropical Hazards Outlook that will extend early warning period for potential tropical cyclone risks from two to three weeks.
Other innovations include the Probabilistic Precipitation Portal, showing forecasts for rain and flash flooding up to three days in advance.
Nicholas Spangler is a general assignment reporter and has worked at Newsday since 2010.
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