Long Island forecast: ‘Soaking rainfalls’ on the way

Forecasters aren’t tiptoeing around this one.

The National Weather Service is calling for a 100 percent chance of precipitation Tuesday and Wednesday on Long Island, including batches of “soaking rain” each day.

“Everything is pointing to a very substantial rainfall that will come in two parts,” said News 12 Long Island meteorologist Bill Korbel.

Tuesday and Tuesday evening bring “some heavy rain at times and maybe even a rumble of thunder,” followed by the second round on Wednesday, Korbel said.

He said total rainfall amounts should average around two inches but as much as three or even four could fall in some locations.

The rain is badly needed. Looking at November alone, precipitation at Long Island MacArthur Airport has amounted to just 0.90 of an inch, as of Sunday night, according to weather service data. That’s 2.36 inches below the norm for the month.

Tuesday morning brings light rain, which could affect the morning commute and gradually become heavy, said John Murray, National Weather Service meteorologist, based in Upton. By late morning, expect a “soaking rain,” with fog starting to form, he said.

That combination can make for reduced visibility, so drivers are advised to slow down and leave plenty of distance between them and vehicles ahead. And when the rain first begins, there could be slippery driving conditions, as there have been no such rainfall events of late to wash away oil on roadways.

There’s also the possibility for isolated thunderstorms, Murray said, which could bring more heavy rain. All this is thanks to a system that’s being enhanced by moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, the weather service said.

Look for breezy conditions as well with gusts up to 30 to 35 mph, he said. The service said it will also be warm for this time of year, with a high approaching 60 degrees.

Then look for a repeat Wednesday, when more showers arrive, some of them heavy.