Long Island forecast: Prospects for 4th nor’easter next week

Long Islanders may enjoy the weekend’s sunny skies and temperatures in the mid to low 40s, but forecasters will be grappling with prospects for the fourth nor’easter in three weeks that could impact the area Tuesday through Thursday.

The key word there is “prospects,” as any significant impacts for the Island are far from a done deal, given high uncertainty with the system still four days off, the National Weather Service said late Friday afternoon.

“More wild March weather [is] possible next week,” said Richard Von Ohlen, News 12 meteorologist, though it was “way too early to give any snowfall estimates, or determine coastal effects.”

What could be said was that “there will be a coastal storm, but just where is still the question,” said Joe Pollina, weather service meteorologist in Upton, meaning effects could range from nothing to a very significant something.

The weather service did say in a hazardous weather statement the storm could “produce strong winds, heavy precipitation in the form of rain and snow, and coastal flooding Tuesday through Wednesday night.”

That’s because models, and hence the forecasters who analyze them, needed more time to get a fix on timing, track and strength, the main ingredients for pinning down what everyone’s itching to know: Snow? Rain? Mix? How much and when?