Long Island weather: Summer-like warmth continues ahead of rain

Sunshine and summery, possibly record-breaking temperatures will define Friday’s weather, forecasters said.

Saturday could start off with similar weather, though it will be quite windy. Any showers look increasingly likely to hold off until the late afternoon, when the odds of rain are 30%, the National Weather Service predicted.

Saturday night could see storms — the odds of rain soar to 80% — and as much as half an inch could fall, it said.

After that, the tri-state area may be in for a patch of sunny, cooler and mostly dry weather. Look for daytime highs to top out in the mid-60s to low 70s, easing to the low 50s and possibly the 40s in spots at night, the weather service said.

Record highs?

Though Thursday's high temperatures fell just short of the records, they could be breached on Friday and Saturday.

Highs near 80 degrees are predicted for Friday. An afternoon southerly breeze may cap daytime highs, however, preventing any records from being broken, the weather service said.

The current records are:

• Islip — 81 degrees on Oct. 15, 1990, and 80 on Oct. 16, 1963
• LaGuardia Airport — 83 degrees on Oct. 15, 1956 and 82 on Oct. 16, 1958
• New York City — 84 degrees on Oct. 15, 1956 and 87 on Oct. 16, 1897
• Newark Liberty International Airport — 86 degrees on Oct. 15, 1956 and 84 on Oct. 16, 1958

Friday night, Long Island’s Twin Forks and southeast Connecticut may be coping with fog and clouds.

The humid, southerly breeze could kick up again on Saturday as a cold front approaches, with gusts possibly reaching 24 mph, the weather service said.

The timing of the front’s arrival is not yet clear, and if widespread stratus clouds — low, grey clouds that may appear in patches — sweep in with the ocean breeze, temperatures will "be held lower," the weather service said. The clouds could also limit wind gusts, it said.

Late Saturday night, showers and thunderstorms may arrive, but the main threat will be that wind, the weather service said.

Out on the ocean, the weather service cautioned, "There is a chance for gales, especially near shore where gust potential will be highest."

"There could even be a few showers on Monday," it said, when the winds will have shifted, arriving from the northwest.

"The challenge is whether there is enough moisture to allow for showers as opposed to broken overcast stratocumulus clouds," the weather service said.

'Drier and seasonally cooler'

The main weather system bringing cooler temperatures next week is what the weather service’s Weather Prediction Center calls "an elongated frontal boundary stretching from southeast Canada to south Texas that contains a couple waves of low pressure embedded along the front."

This region, however, should be spared the rain, possibly severe thunderstorms, hail and even an isolated tornado that front could cause "from Arkansas, northeast across the Ohio Valley into western New York," the prediction center said.

"The front races into the northwest Atlantic Saturday night and a dome of high pressure builds in behind it, leading to the arrival of drier and seasonally cooler temperatures on Sunday," it said.

Cold fronts can spur storms, by pushing warm, moisture-rich air ahead of them that then condenses into raindrops. High pressure systems, in contrast, can create blue skies as falling air dries and cools.