Long Island weather: Wednesday storm brings strong winds, heavy rain, possible South Shore flooding

A coastal storm could bring less than an inch of snow to Long Island Wednesday before switching to heavy rain, according to the National Weather Service in Upton.

But by evening, the system will also bring strong winds, as well as widespread moderate flooding to parts of the South Shore.

Wednesday’s wintry mix will likely hold off until 11 a.m., sparing morning commuters, and will be replaced by rain well before the evening rush hour begins, the Weather Service said.

"This isn't going to be the classic winter storm that a lot of us have been hoping for, at least the snow-lovers in the region," said Dominick Ramuni, a Weather Service meteorologist. "To be honest, it's an open question whether or not we really see any snow across the island."

While the fast-moving storm is likely to bring only a light coating of snow — with the exception of the northern and western reaches of the area, which can expect as much as two to five inches — heavy rain and gusty winds will be arriving.

The winds will be between 25 mph and 35 mph with some gusts hitting 50 mph along the coast but there is also a potential for 60 mph gusts, with the strongest winds expected between 5 p.m. Wednesday and 4 a.m. Thursday, the weather service said.

Up to two inches of rain is expected with three inches coming in some parts of Long Island.

Widespread moderate coastal flooding is also possible for Nassau's South Shore and parts of southwest Suffolk Wednesday evening, forecasters said.

Long Island may see the storm kick off with a wintry mix, but increasingly southeast winds blowing off the ocean should push through the cold air, with that warmer air causing the switch to rain.

“Further inland however, especially to the north and northwest the changeover will take longer,” and probably not until the evening, the forecasters said.

Temperatures should rise to 42 degrees during the day Wednesday, and it should be an uncommonly warm night, with thermometers rising to 50 degrees by 2 a.m. Thursday.

The lack of snow so far this year has been unusual.

If this latest storm again delivers a miss, it will likely break New York City's record for the latest first measurable snow for the season, which was set on Jan. 29, 1973, the weather service said on Twitter.

For Islip, however, there have only been 34 days since it last snowed. Though that episode only produced 0.4" of snow, all it takes is 0.1" to count, according to forecasters.

Thursday morning may start off with rain, and west winds could gust to 40 mph. A cloud-clearing high pressure system will shift through the metropolitan area, heading south, helping bring the sunshine back at least through Sunday night.

And then another rain-causing low pressure system could make its way in, possibly delivering a bit of snow.

With Robert Brodsky