Long Island weather: Cloudy and warm, rain possible Saturday

Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday are expected to stick with the recent twin themes of cloudy skies and surprisingly summer-like warmth, forecasters said.

Highs in the low to mid-70s are predicted — until Friday.

That will be the first fully-sunny day, the National Weather Service said, predicting temperatures couuld spike five to 15 degrees above the average high of 66 degrees for this time of year.

Saturday's daytime high may ease slightly to the mid-70s and while the afternoon may see showers — the chances are 40%, slipping to 30% that night, the weather service said — they should vanish by Sunday, which should be clear and cooler. So should Monday.

Temperatures during the night over the next several days will slip into the low 60s. A cold front arriving as soon as Saturday night, the weather service said, will push them down into the upper 50s and cap daytime temperatures in the upper 60s on Sunday and Monday.

Coastal flood advisory

Tuesday might see some drizzle, which should quit by mid-morning.

In southern Nassau, a coastal flood advisory will run from noon to 4 p.m. as the afternoon high tide may rise to "minor flood criteria," the weather service said.

Where the sun shines Tuesday in the tri-state area depends partly on moisture-laden ocean breezes sweeping in with the stratus clouds, as a potentially rain-causing low pressure system revolves off the Mid-Atlantic coast and a sky-clearing high pressure system sits over New England, the weather service said.

"Subsidence will be stronger heading toward the high pressure center, so therefore better chances of partly cloudy/mostly sunny conditions developing over southeast Connecticut and eastern Long Island after morning fog burns off," it said, referring to the way air falls and dries in high pressure systems.

The clouds may "diminish elsewhere this afternoon, however it could remain partly to mostly cloudy," the weather service said.

The winds likely will be too weak Tuesday night to blow away the clouds, especially in the southwest part of the tri-state area, and fog may develop. There may also be enough moisture for late-night light rain or drizzle in northeast New Jersey and New York City, the weather service said.

The southwest part of the tri-state area may see sprinkles Thursday morning, as a shortwave trough — an upper atmosphere disturbance that "induces upward motion ahead of it," which can at times promote thunderstorms — moves through the area, the weather service said.

The high pressure system, however, "will keep the area dry and warm through Friday, with high temperatures potentially five to 15 degrees above average Friday into Saturday," it said.

Look for temperatures in the low 80s in what the weather service calls the "urban corridor," or the most densely-developed areas, with mid- to upper 70s elsewhere, it said.

The weekend weather begins shifting as a low pressure system sweeping through the Ohio Valley sends "a potent cold front through the local area Saturday or early Sunday," the weather service said.

Low pressure systems often travel through the Ohio Valley, the approximately 200-mile stretch of the Ohio River from Illinois to Pennsylvania.

Hurricane Pamela, about 265 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California at 3 a.m. Tuesday, should make landfall in west-central Mexico Wednesday morning and will send its rain and possibly flood-producing humid air northwest, at least as far as Texas and Oklahoma, forecasters said.

Any Saturday showers in the tri-state may be accompanied by thunder and by Sunday, northwest winds should pick up, helping to deliver a "cooler air mass" on Monday, the weather service said.