Snow for LI: Coming storm won't even 'crack the Top 20 in terms of early'

It might be a little too early for Long Islanders dreaming of a white Christmas, but  meteorologists are forecasting a white Hanukkah.

Long Island’s first measurable snowfall of the season — 2 to 4 inches according to the National Weather Service — is expected Saturday evening. The snow will remain on lawns for the first couple of nights of Hanukkah, which begins Sunday evening, and start to melt Tuesday as temperatures climb above freezing.

On average over the past 30 years in Islip, where the NWS measures precipitation, the season's first snowfall arrived on Dec. 11, according to meteorologist Dominic Ramunni with the weather service’s Upton office.

“We’re basically right on schedule,” Ramunni added.

While the timing of Saturday’s event will not be historically significant — it’s “not even going to crack the Top 20 in terms of early” — it feels “more notable” in recent memory on Long Island, the meteorologist said. Islip is projected to collect 4.3 inches of snow this weekend. That was the same amount measured in Islip on Nov. 15, 2018, which marked the sixth earliest calendar date for a season’s inaugural snowfall.

“That was the earliest [in the season] we had seen at least two inches [of snow] at Islip,” Ramunni said of the first snowfall of 2018.

Saturday’s snow is also “notable in the fact that we haven’t had that many [snow] events over the last few seasons,” he said.

“It will be one of the biggest snowfalls we’ve seen in almost four years, which is a little wild for me to say,” Ramunni added. “We’ve just had some really lackluster winters in terms of snowfall.”

The biggest snowfall since January 2022, Ramunni said, arrived on Feb. 13, 2024, when 4.3 inches — the same amount forecast this weekend — piled in Islip.

This weekend’s forecast is not a harbinger of what Long Islanders can expect this winter, the meteorologist said. The same can be said of recent temperatures — those recorded on 11 of the 12 days this month have all been below their respective averages. Predictions are for a warmer winter than normal, with average precipitation.

“We’re off to a bit of a quicker start than we were the last few seasons,” Ramunni said. “Though it’s a low bar.”