8 to 12 inches of snow predicted for Long Island, with changeover to sleet, NWS says

Long Island is bracing for up to a foot of snow Sunday, although a switchover to sleet and freezing rain could reduce totals, forecasters say.

The National Weather Service is predicting 8 to 12 inches of snowfall for Long Island, with the lowest accumulation on the South Shore.

Newsday meteorologist Bill Korbel said sleet, or ice pellets, could lead to further reductions in totals.

“That will limit snow accumulation at that point, because it won’t be as fluffy,” he said Saturday evening. Accumulations could be lower on the South Shore and on the East End, Korbel said.

Earlier Saturday, Newsday TV meteorologist Geoff Bansen said he was "feeling pretty confident" about 6 to 10 inches of snow for the South Shore.

Bryan Ramsey, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Upton, said the latest forecast dropped snow totals slightly from an earlier forecast of 10 to 14 inches.

"But that doesn't mean we're not going to see heavy snow," he said Saturday evening. "We're supposed to see several hours of heavy snowfall — one to two inch per hour rate at the onset of the event."

Forecasters cautioned that an earlier switchover to sleet and freezing rain could result in a 2- to 4-inch difference in snow totals.

"When the sleet takes over, accumulations won't be as high, but sleet is going to be quite a mess," Ramsey said.

Snow will change to sleet Sunday afternoon into early evening, although there's still uncertainty over the exact timing of the changeover, forecasters said. Light snow could linger into Monday afternoon, forecasters said.

"Forecasting snow amounts on Long Island is like trying to pick the trifecta at the Aqueduct," Korbel said. "It's often very tricky because of our geographic location, the ocean and the ocean influence."

Freezing rain could result into up to 1/10th of an inch of ice Sunday night into Monday morning, which Ramsey said could lead to scattered downed tree branches and power outages.

Elizabeth Flagler, a spokeswoman for PSEG Long Island, said the amount of potential ice buildup is not a concern for the utility.

"We will continue to monitor the weather and adjust resources if needed," Flagler wrote in an email Saturday. "We have personnel ready to respond safely and as quickly as possible."

Suffolk County Executive Edward P. Romaine signed an emergency declaration to assist in the county's response and the recuperation of funds spent on the storm effort. Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman signed a similar emergency declaration effective 2 p.m. Saturday in advance of the storm that "is expected to produce significant snow, strong winds and freezing temperatures," according to the executive order.

Weather service meteorologist Dominic Ramunni said most roadways would not be passable, as snow was expected to accumulate at a rate of multiple inches per hour on Sunday morning and afternoon before the changeover to sleet.

"We're going to be in the midst of a true winter storm here on Long Island," Ramunni said.

Romaine urged Long Islanders to stay off the roads on Sunday. He said the county's Department of Public Works has 10,000 tons of salt on hand and 120 vehicles set to clear the 2,000 miles of county roads.

"We're ready and I think Mother Nature is definitely going to test us," Romaine said at a news conference in Yaphank on Saturday afternoon. He was flanked by elected officials and county leaders. "But we're going to get through this."

Suffolk County Police Commissioner Kevin Catalina said motorists on the road Sunday would make clearing the streets more difficult for plow drivers. "If you're out in the roadways clogging up the roads, it's going to impede our ability to do that," he said.

Romaine encouraged towns to keep their warming centers open next week because of the predicted cold spell after the storm. He said anyone needing assistance can call 311. "I don't want to see anyone outside without shelter," he said.

Blakeman, who urged residents to stay home and off the roads on Sunday, said if conditions on certain arteries are not safe, he would consider closing those roads to the public.

Although the snow has been the focus, Ramunni said the real story would become the sustained cold. Saturday morning, single-digit temperatures were the lowest they had been in three years, he said. Temperatures inched into the teens later in the day.

"For the next week ... our warmest day is tomorrow, in the midst of this winter storm," he said.

When the storm passes, Ramunni said temperatures would likely not hit 25 degrees across the Island.

"It's going to be like, ‘wow, this is winter,' " he said. "It's going to be quite a change here in about 48 hours."

Long Island last saw a comparable blizzard in late January of 2022. At that time, Islip saw two feet of snow, Ramunni said.

"That was a blockbuster historical event," he said. "We've had some lackluster winters, and it's been several years since we've seen this type of sustained cold, and this type of snowfall."

Next week, temperatures are forecast to stay low, which will keep the snowpack around and sharpen the cold, Ramunni said.

"They work together in keeping it cold and winterlike," he said.

Warming centers across the Island offer options for those without heat or shelter. The Nassau County Warming Space, on Old Country Road in Westbury, is open 24 hours a day, a phone operator for the Nassau County Winter Homeless Hotline confirmed. 

Throughout Suffolk County, various public libraries, senior centers and the Dix Hills Ice Rink will serve as warming centers "during excessive cold conditions," according to the county's website. Before traveling to any site, county officials recommend calling to make sure the center is open.

Just over 4,380 flights had been canceled nationwide by 5:30 p.m. Saturday, according to the flight-tracking website FlightAware.

LaGuardia Airport had 116 cancellations and more than 60 delays Saturday, according to the flight tracker, while another 128 flights were canceled and 148 delayed at Kennedy Airport. 

No flights for Saturday were reported canceled at MacArthur Airport in Ronkonkoma as of Saturday evening.

The largest cluster of canceled flights originated from airports in Dallas, Charlotte, Nashville and Atlanta where the massive storm has already taken hold.

The Port Authority, which manages Kennedy and LaGuardia, said in a Friday news release it had activated a "comprehensive package of storm preparedness protocols" by putting in place snow removal equipment, airport staff and a centralized emergency operations center to coordinate "real-time operations" at each airport. The Port Authority urges travelers to check with airlines for updated information on flights.

As for Long Island weather, the next week, Ramunni said, "is going to be brutal."

Newsday's Joseph Ostapiuk contributed to this story.