LI weather: Chance of thunderstorms, damaging winds, hail on Sunday
Afternoon rainbow over Melville on Friday.. Credit: Howard Simmons
The National Weather Service has issued a coastal flood advisory for Long Island starting Saturday night, ahead of an approaching cold front that by Sunday evening is expected to bring severe thunderstorms accompanied by hail and damaging winds.
The flood advisory comes as a new moon phase brings about elevated high-tide cycles as well as elevated southerly winds that will produce water levels at or "just above minor coastal flood benchmarks" Saturday night and Sunday, the weather service said.
The advisory is in place through Sunday. The weather service also noted a high risk of rip currents for all Atlantic Ocean beaches on Sunday.
Until then, Saturday's forecast calls for sunny, clear skies and highs in the mid-80s. The calm weather follows scattered storms on Friday, although neither the Nassau nor Suffolk police departments reported any storm related damage.
Sunday will be slightly cloudy with high temperatures in the mid-80s for most of the day, with chances of severe thunderstorms increasing after 4 p.m., particularly for western parts of the Island, according to the weather service..
“We have a higher risk of severe weather for parts of New York City … Once you get onto Long Island, the risk is still a little elevated across parts of Nassau County,” NWS meteorologist Bryan Ramsey told Newsday. “As you get to Suffolk, that’s when the risk for serious storms drops.”
Ramsey said the “main concern” from a possible storm would be damaging winds, which the weather service forecasts could surpass 58 mph. That’s strong enough to knock-down trees and powerlines, which could spur power outages.
The weather service also cited a risk of hail that could be as large as an inch and could damage vehicles, as well as “heavy rainfall” that could cause some slight, localized flooding.
When asked to quantify the chances of severe storms hitting Nassau County on Sunday night, Ramsey said it was a roughly a 2 in 5 chance chance. He said that risk was 1 in 5 chance in Suffolk County.
“As this passes eastward, the risk for that will diminish. You could see some heavier downpours if thunderstorms were to occur, but it should be moving at a good enough pace that flash flooding shouldn’t be too big of a concern.”
Sam Kmack covers the Town of Islip for Newsday. He is a graduate of the University of Southern California and previously worked as a city watchdog reporter in the Phoenix metro area, as well as an investigative journalist at the Arizona Center for Investigative Reporting.
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