Wisconsin recall vote's impact debated

MILWAUKEE -- Five months before Election Day, you'd think there would be no better harbinger about who will win the White House than a contentious statewide vote in a critical battleground state that never moved on from the 2010 campaign.

You'd be wrong.

Yes, there will be tea leaves to read after Wisconsin voters decide Tuesday whether to recall tea party-supported Republican Gov. Scott Walker, who might be the only politician in America to rival President Barack Obama in contentious achievement that inspires loathing among opponents.

A win for Walker and some will say Mitt Romney is sure to be the first GOP candidate to carry Wisconsin since the party's last winner here: Ronald Reagan in 1984. A loss for Walker will lead others to say the presumptive Republican nominee should give up on the state.

Don't listen.

On both sides, there's a feeling the outcome Tuesday, no matter who wins, will highlight reasons both Obama and Romney should compete hard for Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes. There's an acknowledgment that neither side is likely to wake up Wednesday with a clear edge.

And there's agreement the Wisconsin recall doesn't say much at all about the presidential race in the other 49 states.

"It's a Wisconsin-specific moment, not a national referendum," said Democratic strategist John Lapp, a veteran senior strategist for several election campaigns in Wisconsin.

After his election in 2010, Walker began an effort to strip union rights from most of the state's public employees. The former Milwaukee County executive argued that was needed to balance the state's books, but Democrats and labor leaders saw his efforts as gutting the power of his political opposition.

Democrats responded by gathering more than 900,000 signatures to put Walker back on the ballot, where he'll face the same opponent he beat to win election, Democratic Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett.