Officials: Assad won't be crushed swiftly

WASHINGTON -- Despite the Obama administration's predictions that the Syrian government's days are numbered, recent U.S. intelligence reports suggest President Bashar Assad commands a formidable army that is unlikely to turn on him, an inner circle that has stayed loyal and an elite class that still supports his rule.

The assessment hinted at a continuing campaign lasting several months, if not longer, with more Syrians dying. For the past year, Assad's government has tried to crush an Arab Spring-inspired popular uprising. The UN says more than 7,500 people have died.

Assad's forces mounted a new assault Saturday on the northern region of Idlib, one of the centers of the uprising against the president. The military operation has raised fears of a new all-out offensive like the siege last month that captured Homs.

Meanwhile a diplomatic mission by UN envoy Kofi Annan, who met with Assad Saturday and Friday in Damascus, seemed to be going nowhere. Assad told him that any political dialogue was doomed to fail "as long as there are armed terrorist groups that work to spread anarchy and destabilize the country," according to the state news agency SANA. The opposition rejected dialogue, saying it is impossible to talk to Assad after his crackdown.

Still, over time, worsening economic conditions could threaten Assad's hold on power. Food prices recently doubled, unemployment is rising and refined fuel products are running out.

But no mass protests over food or fuel shortages have broken out, and there hasn't been any discernible slowing in military activity because of a lack of supplies, three senior intelligence officials said Friday. They spoke on condition of anonymity to provide a snapshot of recent intelligence reports and analysis of the crisis.

Satellite imagery shows a new ferociousness to the government's attacks, including artillery shelling of mosques, schools, playgrounds and a hospital, in the Sunni neighborhood of Homs, the officials said.

The army's campaigns have driven 2,000 refugees over the Lebanese border, displaced up to 200,000 more Syrians and spurred some to defect.

But none of the defectors thus far is regarded as belonging to Assad's inner circle, not all who have abandoned him have joined the opposition, and there are no indications of elites pulling their support for him.