UN sees even higher world population by 2050

UNITED NATIONS -- The planet will be even more crowded with inhabitants by midcentury, according to UN experts who have revised upward their 2-year-old population estimates.

By 2050, the world, which now has 7.2 billion people, will be home to 9.6 billion people, more than the 9.3 billion that UN officials projected in a 2010 study of the world population.

And by 2100, instead of 10.1 billion people, Earth will have 10.9 billion, according to the World Population Prospects revision for 2012.

The adjustment comes as experts crunch new data figures showing "high-fertility" countries, most of which are among the "least developed" in the world, will generate more people than originally estimated.

"Compared to the UN's assessment of two years ago, our new projections for population have been revised upward," said John Wilmoth, director of the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs. He spoke at a news conference at UN headquarters Thursday.

He said the adjustment comes because recent data show higher fertility rates in mostly sub-Saharan countries. But Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United States would also experience increases, with U.S. growth being fueled in large part by immigration.

"These future trends, however, are not guaranteed," Wilmoth said. "Even though demography is not destiny, these new population estimates and projections highlight the pressures that some governments are facing now and will continue to face in the future."

The study said some developed nations experienced slight growth and some do not have enough births to maintain their population levels.

Some European nations, such as Belarus, Croatia, and Russia, are among 43 nations expected to see declines in their populations by 2050. Experts said that fertility levels in almost all European countries are below the level required for full replacement of the population, about 2.1 children per woman.

"Growth is expected to be particularly dramatic in the least developed countries of the world, which are projected to double in size from 896 million inhabitants in 2013 to 1.8 billion in 2050 and to 2.9 billion in 2100," the report said.

Developing countries will increase in population from 5.9 billion in 2013 to 8.2 billion in 2050, the report said."In contrast, the population of the more developed regions is expected to change minimally, passing from 1.25 billion in 2013 to 1.28 billion in 2100, and would decline were it not for the net increase due to migration from developing countries," the report continued.

Wilmoth said nations can use the information in the report to fashion family planning programs and incentives to offset any population swings that could strain budgets or create social or economic instability.

Spikes in population can create food scarcity and higher demands for employment and services from government, while population declines place stressors on retirement and health programs for an aged population.

"The main story is to avoid the extremes," Wilmoth said. "The solution is not to control population growth. The solution is changing the ways that we live."