2 views of Newt's chance in early primaries

Now that Newt Gingrich has vaulted to the top of Republican presidential polls, major-party strategists are trying to guess how well he can do in early primaries.

Another possibility remains, of course -- that the Gingrich campaign will go the way of such speculative bubbles as dot-com companies, real estate mortgages and Herman Cain.

Out of a couple of the redder regions in blue-state New York comes an interesting difference of views from two men who served in the House of Representatives between 1995 and 1999, when Gingrich was speaker.

Veteran Rep. Peter King (R-Rockville Centre) has long since had it with the craftsman of the "Contract with America."

"I think he'd be a terrible nominee," King said the other day. "He does not have the intellectual discipline, he doesn't have the sense of proportion needed to be an effective nominee or president."

While crediting Gingrich for organizing the return of Republicans to the House majority two years into the Clinton administration, King said the speaker's tenure in Washington descended into "a constant roller coaster."

"He can't stay focused," King said. "Depending on what book he reads one weekend, he'll go off in a different direction. I think unfortunately he's in pretty good shape -- for now."

Former Republican Rep. Vito Fossella, a Staten Island Republican (who left Congress in 2009 after damaging personal disclosures) sees Gingrich's rise as positive. Fossella said Gingrich "does have a solid record of achievement he can point to."

"I think he reflects many of the core issues that the Republican Party base is feeling," said Fossella, who's still seen as popular in his home borough and works nowadays for the consulting firm Park Strategies, headed by former Sen. Alfonse D'Amato. Fossella, who served for 12 years in Congress, hails Gingrich for "intellectual firepower," the sense that "issues matter," and "an ability to communicate his message effectively."

But running for the nation's top executive job with the record of any legislative leader imposes burdensome political baggage. Any majority leader, speaker or presiding officer comes from a single district and must cater to parochial concerns -- while also serving as partisan firebrands. That means hundreds of insider deals, compromises and trade-offs that might not show well when examined by the voters at large.

Lyndon Johnson and Gerald Ford were once congressional figures high up in the power hierarchy, and they became president, but by succession, at least initially. Barack Obama was a senator, but not long enough to gain seniority. Governors have had better luck reaching the White House in recent decades. Mitt Romney, a former governor of Massachusetts, and Rick Perry, the governor of Texas, know this.

Last week, Nassau Republican chairman Joseph Mondello endorsed Romney, as did Hempstead Supervisor Kate Murray, State Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos (R-Rockville Centre) and Nassau Executive Edward Mangano.

Suffolk GOP chairman John Jay LaValle said Thursday: "We're looking at the candidates, and, contrary to some of the mainstream reporting, I'm encouraged by the Republican field. I think there's great potential there. We are going be making a decision in the immediate future."

There's still room to speculate whether the politician best known for the "Contract with America" can negotiate himself a contract to carry the flag for his party.