Suffolk at center of state's political operations
Suddenly, Suffolk County becomes the frenzied center of the Long Island theater of operations, a zone of heightened importance to major-party battles all over New York.
In recent years, the partisan battle lines seemed to form in Nassau. In 2007 Sen. Craig Johnson (D-Port Washington) broke the Republican monopoly on Long Island seats. In 2008 state Sen. Dean Skelos (R-Rockville Centre) became majority leader - then minority leader.
Along the way, Democratic County Executive Thomas Suozzi ran for governor, lost, ran for re-election and lost. County GOP chairman Joseph Mondello became state chairman, to be replaced three years later.
The action this season has moved east.
New Republican Steve Levy, Suffolk's county executive, is running a wild-card race for governor, taking on Rick Lazio, former Suffolk congressman, for the nomination. New state GOP chairman Ed Cox, raised in Westhampton Beach, also has his son Christopher running for Congress in a multicandidate scrap to challenge Rep. Tim Bishop (D-Southampton). New Suffolk GOP chairman John Jay LaValle has helped Cox and Levy, ditching Lazio in favor of the county exec as his preferred candidate.
And as veteran GOP senators seek to fend off new challengers, first-term state Sen. Brian Foley (D-Blue Point), the second Long Island Democrat in the upper house, is widely believed to face a strong fight for his seat.
More than usual, the disparate races seem connected.
The 3rd Senate District, where Foley in 2008 defeated longtime state Sen. Caesar Trunzo, has a magnified interest in the outside world. One reason is that every Senate seat becomes huge now with the Democrats' one-term hold on the upper house at a fragile 32-30. In turn, the Senate majority becomes especially huge this year because it gets to determine the next decade's district lines - and play a crucial role in deciding difficult budgets.
In New York City Friday, local meets global. Foley is due at Manhattan's ritzy 21 Club for a $500-and-up fundraiser with powerful Sen. Charles Schumer, widely perceived as strong favorite for re-election in his own race this fall.
On April 26, Foley's likely Republican challenger, Lee Zeldin, has planned a fundraising luncheon ($250 minimum, $500 "suggested") at the Manhattan headquarters of a major landlord group. Featured will be Republican Sen. Tom Coburn of Oklahoma.
Of the two Democrats among Long Island's nine state senators, Foley stands to draw more fire for his vote for the payroll tax to help the Metropolitan Transportation Authority - a measure that the Democratic supervisors of Islip and Brookhaven, from which his district is drawn, are joining in a court battle to defeat. Johnson and Foley face unique pressures over property taxes in a New York City-dominated conference.
Behind the scenes, political pros are asking: Would Levy on the ballot - and an eventual endorsement in his backyard - affect local turnout for State Senate or for Congress, as the local Republicans hope?
Will tea partyers and Conservatives drive the right of the GOP, and Working Families the left of the Democrats? Would Levy's presence on the ballot matter locally as much as, say, health reform, stimulus funds and a more general anti-incumbent fervor? Would Andrew Cuomo's presence at the top of the ticket help Democrats at the bottom?
As Suffolk goes, so goes the state.
