Trump's election advantage looms large despite a deep U.S. divide
President Donald Trump during a rally April 27 in Green Bay, Wis. Credit: Bloomberg / Lauren Justice
Regardless of which Democrat he may face next year, President Donald Trump holds big re-election advantages.
The latest economic data shines strongly despite polls showing the GOP tax cut impressed only a minority of voters.
Warnings about Trump's tariffs pale beside key positive trends — most notably a record-low unemployment rate.
Widening deficits and massive spending make for long-term concerns — but not the kind that are known to unseat presidents.
Also, Trump hasn't embroiled the United States in any new ground wars. True, Afghanistan and Syria still have U.S. troops in harm's way, North Korea still moves toward nuclear development, support for Saudi Arabia in Yemen remains controversial, and "all options" are said to be "on the table" in Venezuela. But Trump has no Vietnam, no Iraq. For all his careless language, he does not earn the badge of warmonger. That is a positive.
Dissent is muted and sporadic within his Republican Party. Despite chafing over several major issues, the Senate's GOP majority enjoys significant power from Trump's incumbency.
That's significant because presidents when denied re-election lacked full party support. President George H.W. Bush faced internal GOP static in 1992, then saw votes siphoned to independent candidate Ross Perot. President Jimmy Carter drew outright hostility from Democrats in Congress and a primary challenge from Sen. Ted Kennedy before losing in 1980.
Just how Democrats and independents might coalesce against Trump remains in question. The moment's perceived front-runner is former Vice President Joe Biden. Vice presidents from previous Democratic administrations have bad karma. Walter Mondale, for one, was crushed by Republican President Ronald Reagan in 1984. Veep Al Gore, for another, won the popular vote in 2000 but lost the Electoral College with help from a Supreme Court ruling on the Florida ballot count.
Sen. Bernie Sanders has a consistent platform, like it or not, that could conceivably help him win the Democratic nomination and perhaps create a Trump-like surprise of 2020. Or, for all we know, Sanders could become a left-wing version of Barry Goldwater, the avatar of a movement branded "extreme" and roundly defeated in 1964 by incumbent Lyndon Johnson.
Consider too the recent investigative report from special counsel Robert Mueller.
Still the subject of fierce debate, the Mueller probe report fell short of either accusing or "exonerating" Trump. For 2020 purposes, its issuance hasn't shifted opinions of the president on either side of the partisan divide.
These days, Trump collects insider campaign money with the clout of a swamp incumbent. He began his re-election effort early and never stopped running.
For sure, the most recent ABC-Washington Post poll turned up an eye-popping figure: 55 percent of those surveyed flatly rule out a vote for Trump next year.
That may be an accurate snapshot, but it takes someone to defeat someone, and turnout will be key. Given Trump's vocal fan base, right-wing media chorus, and success in smearing detractors with Joe McCarthy-style charges, widespread alienation might not dash his chances.
The last three presidents won re-election. For that reason alone, the race must now be considered Trump's to lose.
Dan Janison is a member of the Newsday editorial board.
