What to watch for when Cuomo begins guv race

When Attorney General Andrew Cuomo accepts the Democratic nomination for governor next week, you'll begin to hear more and more broadcasts of his voice, which sounds like a unique blend of ex-Gov. Mario Cuomo and actor Christopher Walken. You'll see more and more of those intense, alert movements of the eyes, his familiar facial expressions, the broad shoulders.

For the first time, you'll see him in maximum exposure, front and center.

By any candidate's standards, Cuomo starts off in enviable shape. Given polling and funding numbers, he's been deemed a front-runner for months. His Republican-Conservative opposition remains divided, presumably out-funded, and unsettled. And drawing static, as he has, from damaged Democrats such as ex-Gov. Eliot Spitzer and Sen. Pedro Espada might help him.

Watch for Cuomo to counter the criticism that he's remained aloof from a do-or-die budget process by issuing some plans. Expect him to propose bureaucratic consolidations, perhaps in areas such as state mental-health services. Don't expect him to declare all-out war on the public service unions in the tones of a Steve Levy. But bet that Cuomo will strive to sound as firm as he can on restraining pension costs, other expenses and taxes.

One longtime state Capitol denizen said of Cuomo: "He knows the news cycle. He sees that the only good press that [Gov. David] Paterson ever got was when he sounded tough, when he didn't give in to what you expected him to give in to . . . Now's the time for being a fiscal conservative."

For all the talk of a second consecutive Spitzer-like coronation, Cuomo prepares to play defense. Suffolk Executive Steve Levy or his rival GOP hopeful Rick Lazio will jab at Cuomo's past role as federal housing secretary and argue that Housing and Urban Development policies helped lead to the mortgage blowup. Cuomo will reiterate how he cut staff and streamlined that operation, and of course deny the charges.

New York governors always battle with legislatures. The question is not whether but how the next one will do so. Levy has talked about going in with a popular mandate for "radical" change in the tenor of spending and taxes and using that to leverage the needed changes from the legislative houses. When an interviewer recently talked about Spitzer's self-declared "steamroller" style, Levy shot back that Paterson's past status in the Senate didn't help him persuade the legislature to make needed cutbacks.

On that theme, Cuomo will point to legislation he's successfully pushed, with bipartisan input and support. His pitch will include the ability to reach agreements and to lead without high-handed irrationality. We're a long way from knowing whether voters will buy that.

His selection soon of a lieutenant-governor candidate will be worth watching - now that we know it really could matter.

While Republicans push and shove over the top of their own ticket, they see a pressure point with the union-supported Working Families Party and its expected support of Cuomo. They'll play WFP as an agent of left-wing "special interests" as surely as Levy goes after Lazio's hefty Wall Street bonus of the recent past.

The Democratic fanfare is about to begin.