A vaccine mandate protest in New York City in February...

A vaccine mandate protest in New York City in February 2022. Credit: AP/Yuki Iwamura

Two years ago, millions of New Yorkers were applauding the COVID-19 vaccine, as the celebration of science took hold.

But soon after, objections to the vaccine and, for far too many, a rejection of science took hold, too.

Now, as we head into the third year of confronting COVID, excitement over the vaccine and its boosters has waned and hesitancy, worry and doubt have strengthened.

And it's not just about COVID.

An effort long relegated to the sidelines to oppose even the most established vaccines, such as polio and measles, and to reject school-related vaccine mandates has gained steam in troubling ways, with dangerous impacts.

A measles outbreak is spreading through Ohio, infecting at least 82 children; most are old enough to be vaccinated, but aren't. Chickenpox has returned in states like Alaska and South Carolina. And a polio case in Rockland County led to a state-of-emergency declaration, which expired last month. That, combined with evidence of polio in wastewater testing, including in Nassau County, led to renewed vaccination efforts. Yet, the rate of childhood polio vaccination remains disturbingly low, hovering below 80% for 2-year-olds.

In a new Kaiser Family Foundation survey, just 71% of adults say healthy children should be required to receive the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine in order to attend public school. By comparison, a Pew Research Center poll in the fall of 2019 found 82% of adults said the same. Now, 28% of adults say parents should be able to choose not to vaccinate their children, even if it translates into medical risks for other kids, compared with 16% in 2019. Among Republicans and right-leaning independents, that number now stands at 44%, according to Kaiser. That's a meaningful shift, propelled by false information, conspiracy theories stirred on social media, and increased doubts over the science of vaccination.

Advocates of "parental choice," "informed consent," and other efforts to end vaccine mandates are welcoming the increased attention and acceptance. And as long as their voices are louder, their message will continue to resonate.

"What it does is it takes us out of the fringe and puts us in the mainstream, where I think these ideas belong," said John Gilmore, of Long Beach, who heads the Autism Action Network and opposes vaccine mandates. "The momentum is going our way."

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a virulent anti-vaccine advocate, echoed that sentiment in a fundraising email last week, calling 2022 "a year of unprecedented growth for the medical freedom movement."

Gilmore and other local advocates are planning their next steps, starting with a rally in Albany on Jan. 10 and visits with as many representatives as possible, especially those new to Albany.

"We have a lot of doors to knock on and people to talk to, to try to figure out where they're coming from," said Gilmore.

Gilmore, who says he's not "anti-vax," hopes to stop potential COVID vaccine mandates, while also seeking a restoration of the religious exemption for childhood vaccination or an even broader "informed consent" law that could allow parents to avoid vaccinating their child for any reason.

Gilmore knows such legislation likely wouldn't move forward in a Democratic State Legislature, or be signed by a Democratic governor.

But if vaccine hesitancy, based on a fear grounded in falsehoods, continues to build, so will a very real threat — that dangerous, even deadly, viruses we once thought were locked in the past are going to be part of our future.

Columnist Randi F. Marshall's opinions are her own.

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