A passenger on a train at the 36th Street station...

A passenger on a train at the 36th Street station in Brooklyn during the morning rush on April 13, a day after a shooting attack at he station. Credit: AP

After a gunman set off two smoke devices and unleashed a spray of bullets in a New York City subway car during the morning commute last Tuesday, injuring 23, the terror rippled through the city and beyond.

More than a week later, much of that initial fear has dissipated. But the pandemic's new normal still includes far fewer commuters as many employees continue to work from home and fewer seek entertainment. 

Hovering over it all for suburban residents are public safety worries about the city.

That's part of a combustible mix fueling a pessimism that's keeping many Long Islanders away from the city and making them uncertain about its future, an attitude with long-lasting implications for the region.

An online survey conducted earlier this year by the Partnership for New York City business advocacy group showed a city at a turning point: 62% of workers are either pessimistic or uncertain about the future, but 72% say they're committed to the city and want to be part of its future.

It's a workforce that's scared, with concerns over safety, homelessness, and cleanliness, particularly on public transit, at the top of the list. For 61% of those Long Islanders who commute via public transit, safety was the biggest public transit concern — before last week's shooting.

Then there's this: Only 29% of Long Island and northern suburb residents — the lowest percentage of any region — said they're optimistic about New York City's future.

And while 82% of Manhattanites said they want to be part of the city's recovery, only 62% of Long Island and northern suburb residents said the same.

"People who live in the suburbs were generally the most negative on the future of the city … and the most concerned about crime and quality of life issues," said Partnership chief executive Kathryn Wylde.

Mayor Eric Adams and New York Police Department chief Keechant Sewell, the former Nassau County chief of detectives, emphasize that the city and its public transit are safe. But they'll have to work with the Metropolitan Transportation Authority to convince their neighbors to the east.

More than just safety is at play. As employers evaluate how to retain workers and bring them back to the office and where those employees will live and work, the importance of flexibility, the value of time, and the need to understand workers' desires and find ways to meet them, can't be overstated.

Incentivizing a return to the office, as Wylde suggests, could help. But she rightly adds that a broader shift in thinking might benefit the region.

"Having a less Manhattan-centric economy is not a bad thing," Wylde said.

What would that look like? Beyond adding outerborough office space, employers could turn to the suburbs. And that presents a real opportunity for the Island, if it's willing to think differently, build office space, add housing, develop new downtowns. It could mean more money spent by Long Islanders closer to home, but also by city residents who might head east for jobs.

That would give public transit officials a lot to rethink. While East Side Access and the Third Track could help particularly with the reverse commute, much would have to change.

But here's one thing that likely won't change: Long Island and New York City depend upon one another. The regions are connected inextricably, even now. If one strengthens, the other grows stronger, too.

And if one fails, the other will never thrive.

Columnist Randi F. Marshall's opinions are her own.

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