Moderates need winnowed Democratic field

A week ago, if you squinted your eyes and tilted your head just so, there was a clear path to the Democratic presidential nomination for former Vice President Joe Biden.

Biden was in a strong position to sweep the first four primary/caucus contests — Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada — and with the head of steam that would give him, Super Tuesday wins in California, Texas, North Carolina and Virginia, states in which Biden had been leading, might virtually lock up the nomination.

But just like that, everything changed. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders inexplicably caught fire in Iowa, New Hampshire and California polling, and momentum went sharply the other way.

Perhaps it was Biden’s halting and worrisome speech pattern in the final nationally televised debate before Tuesday’s Iowa Caucuses; maybe it was supporters of Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren defecting en masse to Sanders, which would seem odd given the public dustup the two candidates had over Sanders allegedly expressing doubts to Warren over whether women can be viable presidential candidates. Maybe it was superior Sanders field operations in the early states.

Whatever the reason, it shows just how temperamental political contests can be. It shows how history can turn on a dime.

The significance of self-described socialist Sanders being the Democratic nominee vs. Biden is no small thing. Americans have never nominated a candidate as radical as Sanders — not even close. Liberal South Dakota senator and 1972 Democratic presidential candidate George McGovern looks positively Reaganite next to Bernie.

Sanders’ unexpected growth in polling is alarming politicos on both sides of the aisle. Many Democrats worry that Sanders is unelectable; some Republicans worry he is, though probably not enough. In times of political volatility, strange things can happen. Recall 2016.

The path that appeared for Biden only two weeks ago now looks available to Sanders. He could win three of the first four contests — Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada — and go on to capture delegate-rich California and Colorado on March 3. But there’s something more, and here’s where the equation gets complicated: If Warren falls well short in each of the first four states, she could drop out after South Carolina, fostering additional Sanders wins potentially in Massachusetts and Maine where she now leads.

Judging from her progressive political zeal and long personal friendship with Sanders, it’s hard to imagine Warren going deep into the primaries if the Sanders campaign truly takes flight.

Bernie’s greatest good fortune lies in the traffic jam of moderates remaining in the race and dividing up the non-progressive vote. Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar is likely to win her own state on Super Tuesday; Biden should do well in high-density African-American states below the Mason-Dixon; former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who continues to raise significant money, should draw modest numbers of college-educated establishment votes — all to the benefit of Sanders.

And then there is the X-factor: former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg. Will his massive spending and late entry into the race bear fruit? And if it does, will that prompt other moderates in the race — even Biden — to drop out, or will it divide the anybody-but-Bernie vote even more? 

What’s becoming increasingly clear is that the order in which the Democratic primary field winnows will likely determine who Democrats nominate. But right now, things are looking unmistakably rosy for the avowed socialist in the race.

The other candidates will soon have some soul searching to do.

William F.B. O'Reilly is a consultant to Republicans.

By William F. B. O'Reilly

@wfbor

William F. B. O'Reilly is a Newsday Opinion columnist. He works as a corporate and political communications consultant. He works with clients on the Republican side of the aisle.