Dawidziak: A shame -- few will vote Nov. 8

Election Day is now less than two weeks away. To illustrate the average voter's disconnect with the candidates on the ballot, try a short experiment the next time you're in any kind of small gathering. First, ask if anyone can name one of their town council members. How many can do it -- one out of 10 people? Maybe two? Next, ask if anyone can name their county legislator. How many this time?

Finally, ask if anyone knows whether Carson Kressley has been voted off "Dancing with the Stars." Ahh, now don't we all feel better, ending on an up note?

Of course, whether Kressley really could "move like Jagger" will most likely not affect your life. But whether a local zoning application gets approved or your county goes bankrupt due to the actions of these largely unknown elected officials certainly will.

The results of our little experiment are sad, but not surprising. Political experts are predicting around a 25 percent turnout among Long Island voters this year. In 2009, Suffolk had a 24 percent turnout and Nassau, which had a county executive race that year, saw 29 percent. In the 2010, off-year, federal elections, the national turnout was 41 percent.

But keep in mind that even these dismal local figures aren't comparable to the national statistic. The Long Island numbers are based on the percentage of registered voters, while the national number is based on the percentage of the eligible, voting-age population. If calculated that way, Suffolk's 2009 turnout was 19 percent and Nassau's was 26 percent. So, it's hardly surprising that so few citizens can identify their local elected officials, when so few are participating in electing them. Both are signs of apathy.

What's more, the quoted turnout figure only accounts for voters who actually showed up at the polls. It doesn't account for the "drop-off" factor of people who vote for the bigger races but don't actually complete their ballot -- something that especially happens in town races, which appropriately come at the end (all the way to the right) on the ballot.

But there are two town races this year that in particular should command voters' attention. In Huntington, the Democrats' 10-year hold on Town Hall could be broken. Two years ago, Democratic Supervisor Frank Petrone, despite having a huge spending advantage, squeaked by with his lowest plurality ever (51.85 percent), in an election that saw Republican Mark Mayoka win a Town Board seat after spending literally nothing. His running mate, Eugene Cook, came close, and he's back this year. Many, including me, are predicting a win this time. (Though I am not consulting on this race, Cook's campaign has purchased targeted mailing lists from my company, Strategic Planning Systems.)

The Republicans need to win both seats up on Nov. 8 to get control of the five-seat board -- but hold on. If Cook can win, then it's possible his running mate, Herb Morrow, could, too. The ballot states "Vote for any two," and voters almost always do. There are two Democratic incumbents running, Susan Berland and Glenda Jackson, and most observers feel that Berland's personal popularity and base in Dix Hills give her the best chance of holding on.

The Town of Islip is even more intriguing. Republicans have to pick up only one of two contested seats to gain the majority. One of the seats is open, as Democrat Jonathan Edwards has decided not to run for another term. Also, Republican supervisor candidate Tom Croci and the rest of the GOP slate all have the Conservative and Independence lines. But Supervisor Phil Nolan is vastly outspending them on television and in the mail. The Islip Republican team is trying to make up for that with youth and enthusiasm.

In a democracy that bases its elections on majority vote, it's alarming that only a quarter of those eligible will make the choices for everyone else. Tunisia just held its first free elections. The turnout was 90 percent. The stakes here might not be as high, but the results will affect your quality of life nonetheless.

Recently, when looking at the proliferation of "for sale" signs in an affluent area, a local political pundit commented, "They're voting with their feet." Don't they know it's much easier just to vote the old-fashioned way?

Michael Dawidziak is a political consultant and pollster.