Dawidziak: All eyes on Iowa's GOP caucuses

The gunshot that starts the presidential race will be fired on Tuesday. With all the debates, charges, countercharges and Sunday-morning punditry, it feels like we're already deep into the process. In reality, not one vote has yet been cast.

That'll change next week in Iowa. What may also change is what we think we know about the chances of the Republican contenders. What's been reported up to now were polls based on popularity and approval ratings -- extremely unreliable data on which to predict the eventual nominee. Four years ago in late December, the polls showed that Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani were going to be the Democrat and Republican candidates for president.

Overall popularity, while important, isn't the name of the game in the primaries -- survival is. Meeting or exceeding expectations in each successive contest can be more important than just winning it. Positioning is everything. In an seven-person field, No. 7 is looking to move up at the expense of No. 6. No. 6 is staring at the target on No. 5's back. And everybody is looking to bring No. 1 back to the pack.

The Iowa caucuses mark the first date on this long calendar. A week later comes the New Hampshire primary, and then contests in South Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Maine and on and on until the Utah primary on June 26.

Tradition gives Iowa, a state with less than 1 percent of the country's population, the honor, notoriety and influence of being the first step in the presidential nominating race. If that seems bizarre, it's right in keeping with the spirit of the arcane rules of the caucuses themselves. They differ for Republicans and Democrats, but since President Barack Obama is unopposed for his party's nomination, let's just look at the GOP process.

I've worked on four Iowa caucuses over the years, for the campaigns of George H.W. Bush in 1988 and 1992, Bob Dole in 1996, and Steve Forbes in 2000. To understand the process, first throw out everything you think you know about voting. Get rid of any image you may have of a single voter casting a ballot for the candidate of his or her choice whenever it's convenient to get to the polls on Election Day.

No, it's nighttime, it's cold -- usually single digits -- and often snowing. The biting wind blows across the flat landscape and cuts right through you. Caucus attendees brave these elements to go to one of 1,784 precinct meetings -- typically in a school gym, church hall or even somebody's house.

It's more like a town meeting or a gathering of neighbors. Some have committed to a candidate before going to the caucus, while others are undecided. Unlike the privacy usually associated with voting, electioneering is part of the process. Trying to convince others to vote for your candidate is a big part of why you're there. After all is said, attendees cast a private paper ballot, and the results are tallied and called into the state party, which then transmits the results to a hungry and waiting media.

This deceptively simple process requires a far longer effort than just the one night of voting. Many candidates spend up to two years building an organization of precinct leaders and block captains to generate support and turn out their voters.

Yet history is mixed on the caucuses' importance. Mike Huckabee won big here four years ago but failed to get the nomination. John McCain, meanwhile, tied for third. In 2000, George W. Bush won, however, as did Bob Dole in 1996. Dole also won Iowa in 1988, the year George H.W. Bush, who came in third there, ultimately took the nomination.

Candidates often complain about the amount of time, money and energy they have to spend in Iowa -- which, after all, has only seven electoral votes when it comes to the general election. But they do so quietly. They wouldn't want anyone from Iowa to hear them.

Michael Dawidziak is a political consultant and pollster.