Dawidziak: Handicapping Suffolk exec race

Michael Dawidziak is a political consultant and pollster.

The marquee race on Long Island this year is the run for Suffolk County executive. Sure, it's not a race for the presidency, but the departure of Steve Levy from the stage means the post is wide open for the first time in eight years, and executive positions usually generate the most attention from the electorate. Barring any primary challenges, the race will pit the Babylon Town supervisor, Democrat Steve Bellone, against the Suffolk County treasurer, Republican Angie Carpenter.

The race promises to be competitive. And it has the potential to stick to the issues and not descend into the attacks of personal destruction that have so marred elections of late. Since both candidates have long records of public service, we shouldn't be assaulted with ads raising questions about residency, carpetbagging, outsourcing or voicing doubts about an opponent's commitment to the region.

Still, it's practically guaranteed to get nasty if one of the candidates falls far behind. If it does, the attacks should be issue-oriented and not personal. This is too crucial a time in Suffolk's history to waste time with meaningless, mean-spirited rhetoric.

A recent poll of likely voters, conducted by my company, reveals some interesting points about the race. First, nearly 70 percent of all responders, when asked to name their No. 1 issue, said taxes, government spending, the economy or jobs. To quote James Carville, "It's the economy, stupid."

Since fiscal concerns rule the day, candidates should eschew the social issues and stick to those of the economic variety. The candidate who can point to a record of job creation and can put a viable economic development plan for Suffolk County in front of the voters is on the road to victory.

Second, party identification isn't going to be much help this year. To determine this, pollsters use what we call the "blank ballot test" question, where respondents are asked whether they would be more likely to vote for a Republican, a Democrat or an independent candidate, without attaching any names. Five years ago, the Democrat brand was riding high. Two years ago, it was the Republicans' turn. The needle never points all the way to the left or right for long. Fluctuation is the norm, and now it's pretty even, with a slight edge going to the Democrats.

Neither candidate is very well known -- both have less than 20 percent name recognition. That's not surprising; Bellone has only ever represented the Town of Babylon, and Carpenter -- although a countywide elected official -- serves in an office that doesn't often put her in the headlines. And even though Election Day is only four months away, neither campaign has put out a mailing or aired an ad. The good news for both is that their "negatives" are nonexistent.

Right now, Bellone has a slight lead over Carpenter, but most voters are undecided. It breaks out: undecided, 39 percent; Bellone, 33 percent; Carpenter, 28 percent. Bellone is winning in the Town of Babylon, as opposed to Carpenter, who isn't winning her hometown of Islip. Also, Carpenter (who was a client of mine once, in 1993, when she ran for Suffolk County Legislature) gets no edge among female voters.

These early deficits can be overcome -- but not without money. Most seasoned local political observers point to this as Carpenter's biggest hurdle. With well over a million dollars in the bank, Bellone has a huge edge. With only four months remaining, having the dollars to wage a competitive campaign poses a daunting task for Republicans.

Suffolk is better off than most other counties in the United States, but its future is still on the line. The path taken for future economic growth is a crucial choice at this troubled time in our nation's history. The voters deserve an honest, forthright exchange on the issues, to help them decide who's better qualified to chart that course.