Dawidziak: Inside the GOP upset in Islip

The biggest surprise of this month's elections was unquestionably Republican Tom Croci's victory over Democrat Phil Nolan in the contest for Islip Town supervisor. As this was one of the rare instances of an incumbent losing, the race demands closer analysis.

On Election Night on News 12 Long Island, when it became obvious that Nolan was in trouble, political analyst Jerry Kremer, a former Democratic assemblyman from Long Beach, expressed bewilderment. He rightly pointed out that incumbent town supervisors don't lose unless they've screwed up, and there was no obvious evidence that this was the case.

Typically, people look for "the one" reason elections turn out as they do. When I worked as a consultant to President George H.W. Bush's failed re-election bid in 1992, this was a common question among political strategists. But there was no "one" reason why he lost. You needed David Letterman's Top 10 list to come up with the combination of factors that led to that defeat.

The same is true in Islip. It was a confluence of reasons that led to the perfect storm that spelled defeat for the Democrats. The Republican-Conservative-Independence team also won two town board seats, and with Croci will have a 5-0 majority.

So, here's one analyst's attempt to bring together the factors that led to a rare changing of the guard in the halls of local government.

First, the Republicans, working in partnership with the Conservative and Independence parties, chose five young candidates to make up their townwide slate. Of the group -- Tom Croci for supervisor, Anthony Senft and John Cochrane for town board, Alexis Weik for receiver of taxes, and Olga Hopkins Murray for town clerk -- the average age was 44. And each was appearing on a November election ballot for the first time.

The enthusiasm and work ethic this team brought to the table can't be discounted. In a town with 20,000 or so swing voters, having five hardworking candidates who'll knock on those doors makes all the difference.

Effective leadership was also a key factor. Islip Republican chairman Frank Tantone, in only his second year as leader, has shown a willingness to learn his craft and sharpen his skills. He has also been able to bring together the many disparate factions within his party. He has not only helped to unite the committee in common purpose, but he's found many young faces for committee slots -- an encouraging sign. Parties need the worker bees that actually do much of the busy work that wins campaigns.

Two groups that were clearly unhappy under the Nolan regime were firefighters and Islip Town workers, the latter largely because of changed work conditions. While this might not seem like many voters, take their number and multiply by a factor of 5 -- for family and friend's votes they can influence -- and it becomes a significant number in a town where only about 50,000 votes were cast.

Last, and of vital importance, was the fact that the Republican candidates had the Conservative and Independence lines. The first time Nolan ran in 2006, he didn't get 50 percent of the vote in a three-way race. The next time he ran, he got both the Conservative and Independence party endorsements and won with more than 68 percent of the vote. This year, either line could have provided the margin of victory for him.

There are many lessons to be learned from this race. A big one is that money isn't everything: A month before the election, the Friends of Phil Nolan had $410,000 on hand, and the Islip Republican Committee had $53,500. The Islip Republicans showed you can overcome a big spending deficit with good candidates, effective leadership, the right cross-endorsements and a lot of hard work.

Michael Dawidziak is a political consultant and pollster.