Dawidziak: Storms and political fallout

Michael Dawidziak is a political consultant and pollster.

Natural disasters can cause damage to political careers just as much as they can to homes and electrical lines. The difference is that physical damage can be repaired while, sometimes, reputational harm cannot. Three days after Tropical Storm Irene hit Long Island, the extent of the material losses is pretty well known. The long-term effects on local political fortunes might not be immediately evident.

Extreme weather provides a chance for leaders to excel, enhancing their public-opinion standing, or for them to drop the ball and appear incompetent. Probably no event in recent history illustrates this better than Hurricane Katrina, which hit New Orleans six years ago this week.

For some unfathomable reason, President George W. Bush's initial state-of-emergency declaration did not include any of Louisiana's coastal parishes. The delayed response in relief efforts, combined with an overall mismanagement of the crisis, fueled criticism of the president and his administration.

Bush wasn't alone in receiving scathing criticism for his performance. New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin and Louisiana Gov. Kathleen Blanco also sustained significant damage to their reputations. The most damning charge was that Nagin waited too long -- 19 hours before landfall -- to implement the emergency evacuation, a decision that increased the city's death toll. A subsequent congressional investigation laid blame at the feet of all three levels of government.

Before Irene's arrival late Saturday night, some questioned whether our local officials were overreacting in ordering mandatory evacuations of the low-lying areas. The physical and political damage wrought by Katrina demonstrates that better safe than sorry is a wise course of action.

The infamous 1938 hurricane permanently changed the physical landscape of Long Island. But no natural disaster changed Long Island's political landscape like Hurricane Gloria did in 1985. Gloria hit on Sept. 27, with a little over a month to go before the local general elections. The battle over the Shoreham Nuclear Power Plant was at its height, and Gloria turned out to be a public relations disaster for the Long Island Lighting Co. It started with LILCO's chairman deciding not to return home from a vacation in Italy. It ended with many homes out of power for two weeks.

In many cases, power was restored by out-of-state electrical workers, who told residents about LILCO's antiquated infrastructure. Confidence in LILCO's ability to run a nuclear power plant plummeted. One result, come November, was that two freshmen running on anti-LILCO platforms were elected to the Suffolk County Legislature, ensuring that body's continued opposition to the plant. Their names? Tony Bullock and Steve Levy.

It's the executives' reputations that are on the line when it comes to natural disasters. Presidents, governors, mayors, county executives and town supervisors are the ones the public holds accountable. During the blizzards earlier this year, Long Island executives received high marks for their leadership, while New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg was roundly criticized for his administration's inefficiency.

So far, Long Island's executives are receiving high marks for their pre-landfall preparations and emergency management during Tropical Storm Irene. But this week is critical. The efficiency of the cleanup efforts and power restorations will determine what long-term effects Irene has on political fortunes.