Gear up for a world food fight

Former budget director of New York State and publisher of the International Herald Tribune, Goldmark headed the Environmental Defense Fund's climate program.

Food is on my mind.

I'm not talking about restaurants or haute cuisine. I'm talking about grain - the basic stuff we grow and trade that keeps us all alive.

Very few countries have the flexibility anymore to produce a lot more grain. The United States used to have a lot of unused capacity when we were paying farmers not to grow crops; today we could grow some more grain, but not a lot. Around the globe, most countries are straining against the limits of their existing capacity. World grain output does grow a little each year, but not as fast as population and not as fast as the demand for meat and other products that require more grain per consumer.

So as the world consumes and seeks more grain, who has the greatest capacity to export grain to meet those needs?

We do.

And who's going to need that grain the most?

Let's see . . . Is there a big country with a large population whose grain consumption is going up, and that's hitting the limits of its own ability to produce grain?

Why yes, there is: China.

If you strip off the superficial levels of chatter, cant and diplomatic obfuscation - some of it on display in Washington this past week - China has our dollar IOUs and we have their food. How that tangled but brutal drama plays out will have a lot to do with shaping the first quarter of the 21st century.

Let's look at the humble soybean.

The soybean was first domesticated in China 3,000 years ago. In his book "World on the Edge,'' author Lester Brown tells us that today it is the New World that produces most of the world's soybeans, from one end of the Western hemisphere to the other: Canada, the United States, Brazil and down to Argentina. Argentina now has more land devoted to soybeans than it does to all grains combined. Brazil has cleared huge amounts of tropical forest for soybean planting. But the United States is still the largest soybean exporter.

The soybean is a high-energy oilseed whose proteins promote the ability of animals to draw strength from their regular feed. When you mix soybean meal with regular grain (wheat or corn) and feed it to livestock - say one part soybean to four parts grain - the animals bulk up rapidly.

Who is eating more meat, and therefore growing more livestock? People who live in countries whose standard of living is advancing rapidly, like China.

How many tons of soybeans did China produce in 1995? 14 million.

How much did its people consume in 1995? 14 million tons. The Chinese Communist Party has always feared being dependent on outsiders - especially their enemies or competitors - for food.

How many tons of soybeans did China produce in 2010? Roughly 14 million.

How much did it consume in 2010? Roughly 70 million tons - which means China imported roughly 56 million tons.

That's not where China wants to be.

There is an unfolding drama here we don't hear about much, a story of food dependency for a rising global power that has always feared precisely that vulnerability. And a pivotal role for the United States and other countries in the Americas that have the capacity to supply it.

We have learned about global tugs-of-war for fossil fuels and rare minerals. It's time to add the term "food war" to our vocabulary.

And it's time for Americans to assume thoughtfully the huge responsibility we bear as the world's breadbasket. We've entered the period of the great food squeeze, and how responsibly and constructively the different actors play their hands will determine who pays how much to whom for food - and in some cases, it will determine who starves.