Gyory: 2 governors, 2 approaches to labor

Bruce N. Gyory is a political consultant with Corning Place Consultants and an adjunct professor of political science at the University of Albany.

The Republican governor of Wisconsin, Scott Walker, and the Democratic governor of New York, Andrew M. Cuomo, are taking diverging paths to eradicate their states' budget deficits. Walker is seeking to break the backs of Wisconsin's public sector unions, while Cuomo is seeking to negotiate cost savings with New York's unions. The extent to which either succeeds - both governmentally and politically - will serve as a model for the rest of the country.

Each approach has an antecedent. Walker's is clearly the Newt Gingrich model: forcing as much change as can be made to shrink government, even if that risks shutting it down. Cuomo has adopted the Hugh Carey model from New York City's fiscal crisis of the 1970s: engaging in constructive, if tense, negotiations, resulting in labor concessions that reduced costs.

Walker prefers to reject labor givebacks - even when Wisconsin's unions announced agreement to his every ask on givebacks for this year's budget - because his real demand is a fundamental shift that would end collective bargaining (beyond wages) for public sector unions.

Alternatively, Cuomo, like Carey before him, hopes that past alliances with labor can lead to a constructive dialogue. He wants labor to become a respected partner in recalibrating long-term budgetary equilibrium through savings on salaries, pensions and benefits. This approach internalizes our nation's long social compact, whereby collective bargaining brought largely strike-free labor relations.

But make no mistake: Public sector unions weren't happy with Carey in the 1970s. Carey leveraged the threat of a New York City default to persuade labor leaders to become partners in restoring solvency. And the unions aren't happy with Cuomo's budget this year - particularly his calls for givebacks as an alternative to layoffs, as well as spending and property tax caps.

The question is, will the Carey-Cuomo model overcome labor's angst about concessions, precisely because of labor's fear of the Gingrich-Walker model?

Key unions here in New York may determine that if Walker succeeds in stripping unions of collective bargaining rights, while Cuomo fails to end New York's shortfall, then it will be the Wisconsin approach that is emulated in Ohio, Michigan, Florida, New Jersey and, ultimately, California, Illinois and Connecticut. Labor probably senses, deep down, that either the Walker or the Cuomo path will succeed, but not both.

For New Yorkers, who support Cuomo's budget (by a 3-to-1 margin, according to the recent Siena poll), the hope is that Cuomo can transform the political Armageddon that Walker has precipitated into the alternative tool he needs to begin the painful process of chiseling a balance between the growth in spending and the loss of revenues.

For Cuomo, success will require going back to the basics: establishing credibility on the numbers with labor and using a supple tactical hand. Compounding this mission is that, while succeeding with labor, Cuomo must simultaneously succeed in securing savings from prison closures, mandate relief and cuts in education aid and Medicaid. Herculean tasks.

If Cuomo doesn't succeed in this, his first budget, the Walker model may well gain political steam - especially among the new crop of Republican governors and those rumored to be seeking the presidency now (Mitch Daniels of Indiana and Rick Perry of Texas) or in the future (Chris Christie of New Jersey).

Here's hoping that Andrew Cuomo can - like Hugh Carey, with a twinkle in his eye - grasp opportunity amid the chaos. His ability to get labor to see its stake in joining him may determine whether the collective bargaining table remains open at state capitols across the nation.

If together Cuomo and labor fail, then the angry path of Walker, invoking Gingrich and relishing brinkmanship, may become a recurring trend. Enlightened self interest is the keystone to effective governing. This will be a shared test for our nation's governors and the public sector unions.