Gyory: Pundits note Suffolk political winds

Suffolk County has been seen as a talisman for where swing suburban voters are heading nationally. Therefore, what does Steve Bellone's landslide victory portend for electoral trends next year in the suburbs, where half of American voters reside?

It's easy to see why Suffolk has achieved this vaunted status as suburban bellwether. There's no wind at either party's back: Party registration is virtually dead even (314,726 Republicans, 309,559 Democrats), putting the 244,412 unaffiliated voters in the driver's seat. Thus, either party can carry Suffolk with the right candidate projecting the correct message.

Polling data distilled over the years reveals that Suffolk's electorate is more conservative than liberal, with about four in 10 voters describing themselves as conservative, about a quarter liberal, and about a third moderate. These ideological splits are very close to how the national electorate describes itself.

But while the ideology of Suffolk's electorate bolsters the Republicans, demographic trends are starting to favor the Democrats. Suffolk's once pronounced blue collar, white Catholic roots are still vital politically, but their political influence is being challenged. Suffolk has a growing share of upper income, highly educated voters, especially among Asians, as well as working class Hispanic voters, whose hands don't quickly jump to pull levers for orthodox Republican candidates. These newer voters are quite concerned about the environment, education, supportive of gay marriage and focused upon job growth.

In 1990, 23 percent of Suffolk residents had a four-year degree, but today that number is 32 percent; the portion of Suffolk's electorate that is highly educated has significantly increased.

There have also been swirling changes, as documented in the 2010 Census. Suffolk had the largest numerical growth of any county in New York, while Nassau's population growth was stagnant. Across Long Island, the Hispanic community grew by 56 percent, and the Asian population by 31 percent. Suffolk is now 13 percent Hispanic, 8 percent black, 4 percent Asian, and 4 percent multiracial.

In his campaign this fall, Bellone succeeded in de-emphasizing ideology. He brandished his record as a hawk on property taxes, while projecting a penchant for innovative cost cutting. Voting returns suggest that he convinced many blue collar Democrats, moderate independents and non-tea party Republicans that he would hold the line on spending.

But Bellone's campaign also unleashed the tide of demographic change moving toward the Democrats. While Democrats have a tougher time pulling their diverse coalition to the polls, the Bellone campaign was able to get out its voters -- career women and single mothers, highly educated professionals, union households and minorities.

The GOP's oft-stated hope, as articulated by Suffolk GOP chairman John Jay LaValle, that identification with President Barack Obama would sink Bellone did not materialize. In fact, as Election Day drew closer, the president's approval ratings were rising, as reported in a Quinnipiac University poll last week. At the same time, negative reaction to the tea party grew in suburbs like Suffolk, as indicated in a Siena Research Institute poll of New York State voters released on Oct. 18. Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo's endorsement became a protective cloak for Bellone.

While it would be wrong to read too much from Bellone's victory, there is a critical trend worth tracking. Have Suffolk's Democrats begun to erode the ideology gap favoring Republicans, so that demographics become the determining factor in 2012, powering Democratic success in the nation's suburbs next year? Political strategists will be mining Suffolk's returns for golden nuggets to answer that question.

To paraphrase an old quip, as Suffolk goes, so go America's suburbs.