Leubsdorf: Perry's uphill Iowa challenge

CLARINDA, Iowa -- Both were powerful governors of Texas, who brought bulging campaign bankrolls and great expectations to presidential bids in years when Republicans had high hopes of recapturing the White House.

But a generation after John Connally's presidential bid flopped badly in 1980, Rick Perry may be headed for similar results unless he can ignite a late surge in Tuesday's Iowa Republican caucuses.

Indeed, as the Texas governor began his stretch run by resuming a 16-day bus trip that ends caucus eve in the town of Perry, there were signs that he has still not overcome the handicap of his late start -- despite spending the most money His crowds were enthusiastic at each of four stops in conservative southwestern Iowa. But his fervent pitch for support as "the authentic conservative who'll fight for your views and values without an apology" failed to sway some undecided voters, including those who acknowledged the need for conservatives to unite behind one candidate.

"What I'm worried about is that all of the conservatives will split the vote and the other guys will get in," said Myron Sunderman, 59, a Page County farmer, referring to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich after hearing Perry at a museum honoring Clarinda's most famous son, swing-era band leader Glenn Miller.

Though Sunderman wore a Perry button and said he was impressed with the Texas governor, he added, "Right now, my vote is with (former Pennsylvania Sen.) Rick Santorum." Later, in Osceola, a minister said he was very pleased that his abortion-related question prompted Perry to reveal a "transformation" in his views on the issue, now favoring a ban on all abortions, including those of rape and incest victims or to save the mother's life. But Joshua Verwers, 30, of the Full Faith Christian Center in Chariton, said Perry still didn't sway his vote from Rep. Michele Bachmann. "She's got fewer nicks against her record on all of the issues I care about," he said.

Perry's inability to win over voters like Sunderman and Verwers exemplifies his failure to challenge Iowa's perceived front-runners: Romney, Gingrich and Texas Rep. Ron Paul. The problem stems from his late entry into the race and his much publicized debate goofs -- and the torrent of subsequent media criticism.

Dale McAllister, 55, a Clarinda banker who backs Perry, paused when asked about the governor's prospects. "Boy, that's really tough," he said. "The press has been awfully tough on him," though he conceded that other candidates have faced their own critical coverage. "But he's got a lot of great ideas." Lengthy bus trips such as the one Perry is navigating are the norm here. (Connally mounted a nonstop 36-hour caucus-eve marathon in 1980.) But overall, Perry has spent fewer days here than any Republican except Romney, who has a strong Iowa base from his 2008 bid that may yet enable him to defeat the divided field of conservatives.

In these final days, the media focus has moved elsewhere, Perry's tour gets less notice -- as do the discordant notes he strikes. For instance, Tuesday he largely read his new speech at four stops -- after earlier running an ad mocking President Barack Obama's use of TelePrompTers. He condemned Obama for staying aloof from congressional budget talks, though state legislators say he did the same thing in Austin. He chided Washington's use of public-private partnerships, operations similar to those he has employed in Texas. And he continued to stress states rights, while advocating constitutional amendments to ban abortion and gay marriages.

In Creston, Perry told reporters, "We're going to do fine" on Tuesday. And the latest polls show attacks on Gingrich may yet give him a chance to finish third behind Paul and Romney. Of course, it's also possible he will finish sixth, given how uncertain the race is day to day.

And in another strategy reminiscent of Connally's, Perry still is targeting South Carolina, with its very conservative electorate, and may largely skip New Hampshire, where he is far behind other candidates. But poor showings in Iowa and New Hampshire have generally proved too much to overcome, as Connally discovered when he also lost South Carolina in 1980.

Perry may well be heading down the same road.

Carl P. Leubsdorf is the former Washington bureau chief of the Dallas Morning News. Readers may write to him via email at: carl.p.leubsdorf@gmail.com.