McFeatters: Shortsighted U.S. energy policy

WASHINGTON -- Despite improving economic data and the soap opera that the GOP primary has become, the White House has a new worry -- rising oil prices.

Oil is once again over $100 a barrel, and analysts are warning that $5-a-gallon gasoline is a serious possibility. When oil prices rise, consumers get angry. And when consumers get angry, they inevitably blame whoever is in the White House. And when they blame the president, it is much more difficult for him to get re-elected.

It matters not that the president does not control international oil prices and has few options, short of tapping strategic oil reserves, a stopgap measure at best. What does matter is that pain at the pump often translates into angst in the voting booth.

With the housing market still in the doldrums and millions of Americans unemployed or underemployed, global tensions over Iran's nuclear ambitions are translating into yet another threat to the fragile economic recovery. Higher oil prices affect almost every economic sector, and are arriving when there is no cushion.

Recession-bitten consumers who have tightened their belts, curbed their discretionary spending and stopped saving already are seeing higher gas prices, reaching $4 a gallon in some parts of the country. Consumers who had hoped that this summer they might take that long-deferred vacation are watching the escalating gas prices with dismay. Also, it's one thing to travel closer to home for recreation; it's quite another to face significantly higher costs to get to work.

Businesses that had begun talking of plans to start hiring additional personnel are more likely to put them on hold as transportation costs rise.

For this White House, the most dangerous aspect of higher oil prices may be another blow to consumer confidence. It may not be fair, but Americans who feel economically vulnerable lower their job approval for the president.

President Barack Obama's approval rating has inched back up to 49 percent, up three points from six months ago. But there is a lot of volatility to indicators like that in a weak economy.

While Americans spend about 5 cents of an after-tax dollar on gasoline, those ever-higher numbers on the huge gas-station signs make people anxious. In 2008, when gas prices were well over $4 a gallon, Obama could turn such nervousness to his advantage. If that happens in 2012, Republicans could have the edge.

Some economists believe that last spring's violence in Libya, resulting in higher oil prices, slowed the economic recovery, although the White House vehemently denied it. This year's potential global disruption to oil flows, in the wake of the passage in Congress of tighter economic sanctions against Iran, stems from Iran's threats to deny oil to European nations participating in economic sanctions.

One huge problem for oil economists and diplomats alike is Iran's unpredictability. One day Iranian leaders are threatening to cut oil supplies, and the next they are hinting at a willingness to negotiate out of desperation over the sting of sanctions.

The nail-biting around the world on oil supply and demand could force Obama to use the tools he has to weaken sanctions against Iran, but that would hurt his credibility as a tough leader. That would give Republicans a big stick to use in November just as they will denounce his decision that it's premature to approve the Keystone oil pipeline extension.

But Republicans must assess whether voters potentially will turn against GOP legislators as well as Obama if oil prices are soaring when Americans vote in November. They could be hurt, for example, if they block legislation on energy independence.

America's dependence on foreigners for half of its oil needs is costly, tiresome and dangerous. Yet efforts to lower consumption and produce affordable, renewable energy are often blocked. One day, politicians will get the message, and historians will shake their heads at how stupid we were for so long.