Cyr: North Korea missile launch is just the latest provocation

The successful launch last week of a space satellite by North Korea is cause for concern, but no sign of a basic strategic shift -- yet. Nonetheless, a tough response with teeth is required by the world community.

For almost two decades, Pyongyang has oscillated between apparent accommodation and bombastic hard line. In late February, North Korea's official news agency and the U.S. State Department jointly announced that Pyongyang would cease uranium enrichment and nuclear weapons tests and permit inspection of nuclear facilities. In return, the United States would resume shipments of substantial amounts of humanitarian food relief.

This was followed in April by a test of a long-range missile. That missile launch led to immediate cessation of U.S. aid. Even in closed North Korea, news leaked out to the undernourished population that anticipated provisions had been stopped. The past several years have seen some unrest amid the apparently total discipline imposed from the top. Space shot publicity will not change this.

A report in September by the Rand Corp., a defense policy think tank, argued that North Korea's long-term but erratic efforts to develop long-range missiles do not represent a major threat to the global balance of power. Markus Schiller, author of the study, emphasized that obsolete Russian engines were used, with both range and payload too small to support a credible intercontinental ballistic missile.

There remains the basic question of the communist regime's true goals, given that its actions increase North Korea's isolation. Dictatorships encourage suspicion among their own populations and also outside analysts, leading to the bias of assuming coordinated planning. Much media commentary on both missile and nuclear weapons tests over nearly two decades assumes that North Korean leaders are operating in concert.

In fact, there are signs of bureaucratic conflict and a power struggle in Pyongyang, encouraged by the ineffectiveness of Kim Jong Un, the young, recently installed leader. Cracks in the rigid face of the regime provide openings for diplomacy.

The United Nations Security Council strongly condemned the North Korea test. The test violates UN resolutions that prohibit missile and nuclear-related tests by the North. This should be accompanied by tough action.

As an example, the Bush administration declared Banco Delta Asia, or BDA, based in Macau, a renegade institution assisting illegal activities by Pyongyang in the global black market. U.S. businesses were banned from dealing with BDA, and others followed suit. Macau government authorities froze $25 million in North Korean funds. The money was released following North Korean concessions.

The high stakes involved are obvious. The Korean War of 1950-53 took an estimated 1 million lives, brought direct combat between American and Chinese forces, and devastated the Korean peninsula. In U.S. politics, the conflict destroyed public support for the Truman administration and fed anti-communist hysteria.

Another war could devastate the Koreas once again. The approaching U.S. defense budget cuts will leave even fewer forces for a possible war in Korea.

Over the years, Pyongyang has been effective at creating crises, sometimes approaching the brink of war, only to step back, usually in return for substantial economic aid.

For Washington and its allies, negotiation has been frustrating -- at times agonizing -- but war has been averted and stability maintained. China's role in restraining an ideological ally will become even more important.

Most important of all is South Korea, where remarkable economic and political success provides a profound rebuttal to the communist North.

Arthur I. Cyr is the author of "After the Cold War." This is from Scripps Howard News Service.