OPINION: A glimpse into Long Island's economic future
Pearl M. Kamer is chief economist at the Long Island Association, Long Island's largest business and civic association.
The recent employment report from the New York State Labor Department was a wake-up call for Long Islanders.
The good news was that Long Island's private sector is again generating jobs. In the 12 months ending in July, private-sector employers created 8,600 jobs, significantly more than in prior months. The bad news was that many of those jobs occurred in lower-paying industries such as retail trade, tourism and miscellaneous services. Higher-wage industries like manufacturing, construction, information technology, finance, insurance and real estate have yet to turn the corner and are still shedding jobs.
But Long Island can reverse this situation and set the stage for future economic development with the right policy decisions right now.
First, we have to recognize that the recent recession was "transformational" - the economy of the future will be structurally different from the one we've known for the past three decades. Technology is destroying older, less skilled jobs at a rapid pace, and the recession accelerated this process. Moreover, we're just emerging from a prolonged period of easy credit and debt-fueled growth. Credit will be less readily available in the future, making it difficult for Long Island households to sustain the spending habits they've built over the past three decades, habits that became even more pronounced during the past 10 years. That means the consumer sector will shrink as a proportion of the overall economy.
Whenever the economy undergoes a structural transformation - which occurs relatively infrequently - it takes time for new industries to emerge and for workers to develop the skills needed by these industries. But there are already several new, technology-intensive industries on the horizon, and Long Island is in a strong position to attract and retain jobs in these industries.
Long Island's premier medical facilities, educational and research institutions will allow it to compete effectively for future jobs in health care, renewable energy, information science, biotechnology and nanoscience. Institutions like Brookhaven National Laboratory, Stony Brook University, Farmingdale State College, the Long Island Power Authority and National Grid are already working together to position the Island as a leader in the development and use of renewable energy sources. Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory is spearheading new discoveries in cancer diagnosis and treatment. Brookhaven Lab's ability to fabricate and study nanoscale materials has enormous job potential.
And some of Long Island's older industries will also begin to generate well-paying jobs. Long Island's aging infrastructure needs to be renovated, and new areas must be provided with sewers to set the stage for future economic development. This process will create large numbers of construction and related jobs.
Redevelopment of Long Island's older downtowns and construction of higher-density, mixed-use developments in areas that can best support them will also be a source of new, high-paying jobs. These developments will allow Long Island to diversify its residential mix and incorporate housing that is affordable to all elements of the population - and that's essential if Long Island is to retain young, skilled workers. The development of such higher-density nodes will also make it possible to preserve current lower-density land use patterns throughout most of Long Island - patterns that most Long Islanders seem to prefer.
Considerable NIMBYism still exists when it comes to such developments. School districts often oppose higher-density residential developments in the mistaken belief that they generate too many school-aged children, who then become a financial burden to the district. But numerous studies, including those specific to Long Island, have debunked this myth. A recent study for the Long Island Housing Partnership showed that higher-density developments on Long Island - including rental housing - actually produced fewer school-aged children than traditional single-family homes. What's more, most such developments were tax positive: They paid more in property taxes than they generated in additional school costs.
Remaining competitive in the new economy will also require a massive training and retraining effort by Long Island's educational institutions. What distinguishes the new economy from the old is that most of the new jobs will require at least some college education. To work on a typical manufacturing floor today, an employee must have an associate degree or higher.
Embracing distance learning, in which experts in particular fields lecture students through the Internet, may be one means of providing quality instruction for current students. Distance learning can enrich the educational process from the earliest grades through postsecondary education. It's also a means of stretching limited educational resources. Individualized learning through Web-based courses can allow current jobholders to retool their skills. And on-site courses offered at local businesses can keep employee skills current and allow Long Island employers to remain competitive in a rapidly changing economy.
Long Islanders can take the steps today to attract the high-paying jobs of tomorrow, but they cannot do it alone. They also need help from government. To get that help, they must speak with one voice. Cooperation and collaboration among public and private agencies and organizations, such as the Long Island Association, can help to promote economic development and job creation, obtain more equitable tax structures, and ensure Long Island's fair share of assistance from Albany and Washington.
The transformation won't happen overnight, but with planning and cooperation, there can be a brighter economic future for Long Island.
