OPINION: State Senate control the major prize in fall elections

Desmond Ryan is the executive director of the Association for a Better Long Island, a Hauppauge-based developers group.

For years to come, history students will be studying how New York's "last angry man," Carl Paladino, defeated Republican Rick Lazio in the GOP primary. But for Long Island, that contest is a side show. Long Island's government affairs pros and public policy junkies know that the real tipping point for the state's future will be decided not by who's in the governor's mansion, but by which party controls the State Senate.

Traditionally, voters rarely looked at either legislative chamber in Albany. But then we had last year's Senate leadership revolt, followed by ethics allegations against some Senate leaders. Chaos, followed by paralysis, and chastised by investigations, doesn't endear lawmakers to their constituents - especially now, when unemployment touches so many households.

It's anyone's guess who will control the State Senate following Election Day, but whoever holds the majority leader's gavel will have much to consider. This Senate majority will lead the charge in redrawing legislative districts, as part of the reapportionment process mandated every 10 years. From congressional districts to Assembly seats, lines on a map can determine which party will hold power for generations to come.

While there have been calls for an independent bipartisan reapportionment process by New York's respected elder statesman, former New York City Mayor Ed Koch, few with real power in Albany seem prepared to cede that level of raw political control.

For Long Island, there's a lot on the line. The last political cycle saw this region of 2.7 million people lose clout to New York City in Albany. Powerful chairmanships that can direct dollars for roads, bridges, sewers and parks have gone "off Island." The most obvious example of the city-centric lurch was the decision by the State Senate to block tolls on the East River bridges to finance the MTA, while passing a surtax on Long Island businesses, many of which are far removed from mass transit. With the primary losses of three Long Islanders - Rick Lazio, Bruce Blakeman and Kathleen Rice - this city tilt will only become more pronounced, and infrastructure projects and economic incentives designed to spur jobs and investment east of the Cross Island and north of the Tappan Zee will be ignored.

It's not that New York City politicians don't know about Long Island - it's just that most simply focus on the money centers in the Hamptons, Melville and Mineola, and the campaign contributions they get there. Otherwise, the Island holds little relevance for them. They don't understand, or appreciate, that if our region is allowed to become an anemic appendage of the city, then a vast economic engine for the entire state is put at risk.

This shift in power and its potential to harm Long Island haven't gone unnoticed. The heavy construction industry and its trades have put aside their traditional labor-management rivalry to create the Public Works Alliance, for the purpose of asking elected officials: "What have you done for our roads and bridges?" Business groups that see the damage Albany is doing to the economy through confiscatory taxes have become far more militant.

Every vote is important, and every race equally so. The next governor is likely going to try and impose spending caps and program reductions, and have to make other difficult decisions, and the legislature (if past is prologue) will insist it is an equal branch of the government that will not be dictated to.

But what Long Island voters need to appreciate is that, despite these strategic areas of enormous concern, their real future may be defined by whom they send to the State Senate. Unless there's another shift, it will be city-based power brokers who decide where to draw the legislative jurisdictions that will define who has access to power and votes, and who will be marginalized in the near future.

Listen to all the candidates - but pay special attention to your State Senate race.