OPINION: Storm preparation, an inexact science

Michael Balboni, a former state senator and former New York State deputy secretary for public safety, is an adviser to North Hempstead Town Supervisor Jon Kaiman.

The Long Island Power Authority landed in the hot seat this week over the $30-million price tag for its Hurricane Earl preparations. But the potential impact on electricity rates isn't the only thing Long Islanders should take away from this exercise; there are valuable lessons to be learned, too.

The first is that just because there was a great deal of publicity about a storm that never occurred, Long Islanders can't afford to become complacent or desensitized to our vulnerability to extreme weather.

Just ask people who were home on the Great Neck peninsula on June 24. They can tell you just how dangerous and unpredictable Mother Nature can be. That storm - a microburst that occurred with very little warning - uprooted 50-year-old trees. Millions of dollars of property damage was incurred, and power was lost for days. The sustained winds, however, registered at only around 60 mph, and they gusted for less than an hour.

Imagine now a Category 2 storm - what Earl was as it approached the middle of the Eastern Seaboard - with sustained winds of over 100 mph, hammering the Island for a day.

The potential damage would dwarf most people's expectations and experience. Long Island has been just plain lucky for a very long time. But how long can that luck hold?

Hurricane modeling isn't an exact science. Even the most experienced hurricane watcher will tell you that these unpredictable storms can have a personality all their own. Yes, Earl missed us. But it could have taken a left-hand turn and smashed right into us. It is always important to err on the side of caution and preparedness.

Nonetheless, Long Islanders are scratching their heads at how much LIPA spent in preparation.

Hiring contractors from as far away as Michigan to come to New York may seem like an overreaction now, but LIPA's desire to position itself to respond as rapidly as possible is understandable - even laudable. A recent poll of Long Island residents showed that homeowners expect that lost power should be restored within 12 hours. As unrealistic an expectation as this may be, LIPA certainly knows what the reaction would be if it were to take the agency weeks to get most of the Island up and running.

The key is to develop emergency-resource allocation plans that are scalable and sustainable. Obviously, if LIPA spent $30 million every time a storm was predicted, no one would be able to afford to turn on the lights.

So that's where the second lesson comes in. LIPA needs to examine more closely what it would take to establish a "just in time" emergency response system that leverages private and municipal resources in a mutual-aid compact, just like many fire departments do. New York State developed a program of precontracted merchants and service providers who would deliver needed supplies on a priority basis in the case of an emergency under its New York Delivers program.

Models like these just might help LIPA manage its costs - and the storm of public expectations.